BRONCOS SLAMMED FOR “REACHES” IN NFL DRAFT — BUT DID THEY REALLY MISS?

The Denver Broncos are being slammed by the media and some fans for 'reaching' in the NFL draft. But teams don’t use a public big board.

NFL teams typically have 100-120 players on their draft boards, with some being removed due to character concerns, medical issues, or based on need. The Broncos likely didn’t have early quarterbacks or offensive tackles on their board.

So, the big boards fans see are made by media people (like me), and they're not going to match what teams have. That's something to remember when a team passes on player X, who you thought would go earlier, only to fall later in the draft or even out of it. 

That said, the Mock Draft Database's Consensus Big Board is a contrast to understanding at what rate the Broncos 'reached' against that board. You can also check out my big board of 2025, where I ranked players, and, combined with the Consensus Big Board, see how the Broncos reached on some players.

My board compares where a player went vs. where they were graded. It will be referenced as we compare the Broncos' draft ‘reaches’ to the rest of the NFL. However, my main comparison tool in today's 'reaching' analysis will mainly use the Consensus Big Board. 

Against the CBB, the Broncos ranked 30th when it came to reaching, meaning they drafted players much higher than their respective grades on the board. So, it's a basic calculation that each draft pick is worth its slot.

A first pick is worth one point, and the 257th pick is worth 257 points. The Broncos had seven picks worth 846 points, yet for the players they took, their total was worth 1,773 points. So, Denver took players a total of 927 spots higher than they were projected to go against the CBB. 

The biggest demerits for the Broncos' reach score were punter Jeremy Crawshaw, who was the 467th-ranked overall player but was drafted 216th — 251 spots higher — and tight end Caleb Lohner, the 241st pick, who wasn’t even on the CBB. That landed Lohner 452 picks higher than projected in the imperfect way I rank players who aren’t on the board. The only player the Broncos didn’t reach for was first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron, who ranked 15th on the CBB. 

The Las Vegas Raiders were one of the teams that ranked worse than Denver in the reach department, checking in 31st out of 32. The Raiders took players a total of 950 spots higher than where they were graded on the CBB.

Cam Miller was taken 476 spots higher than he was ranked, and Tommy Mellott was taken 293 spots higher than projected. The Raiders only drafted two players later than where they were graded in Charles Grant and J.J. Pegues. However, Ashton Jeanty was taken right where he was graded. 

When it came to reaches, the worst team was the New England Patriots, who had 11 picks and selected players a total of 1,299 spots higher than their collective ranking on the consensus big board. Will Campbell went where he was ranked, but the Patriots' final three picks are what tanked them. Those three picks were taken 375, 443, and 439 spots higher than their consensus rankings.

This is something I've done since 2022, so when I pulled up the sheet from that year and examined the Broncos' reach rate compared to the CBB, they ranked 31st. The Broncos had nine picks with 1,298 points and drafted over the consensus by 500 spots.

Three years later, the Broncos had a top 10-15 class headlined by Nik Bonitto and Luke Wattenberg. Sure, the rest of the class was lackluster, but the Arizona Cardinals, who ranked second in reach rate at the time, ended up having a terrible class with only Trey McBride as a hit.

The Carolina Panthers ranked first in 2022, and they also missed on everyone except the guy they drafted sixth overall. The Kansas City Chiefs ranked third in 2022, and three years later, they had the best class, hitting on four or five of their picks. 

The Takeaway

The point is, even though the Broncos 'reached' against the public CBB, GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton have their board. The Broncos trusted that board, and only time will tell whether they or the CBB were right.