In Week 5, Derrick Henry became the 32nd player to reach 10,000 career rushing yards in the NFL . Before him, the most recent players to do so were Marshawn Lynch (Last played in 2019), LeSean McCoy (Last played in 2020), and Adrian Peterson (Last played in 2021).
Due to the shift in the NFL, where the run game now plays second fiddle to the passing game, some questioned if we'd ever see anyone do it again. And it seems fitting that a player like Henry, who has been so dominant for so long, got the job done. This now makes us question whether or not any current RB will be able to join Henry by doing what many believe to be impossible: rushing for over 10,000 career yards.
So what are the chances that Indianapolis Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor can accomplish this feat?
Can Jonathan Taylor rush for over 10,000 yards before his career is over?
Taylor is currently in his fifth season in the NFL and has appeared in 57 games. He has turned 997 rushing attempts into 4,931 yards and 44 touchdowns, which means he's 5,069 yards away from reaching 10,000. Henry is currently playing in his ninth season, and it took him 124 games and 2,125 rushing attempts to cross the 10,000-yard threshold.
With Taylor only 69 yards away from the halfway point, it seems safe to say he will get there at some point this season. Potentially, in the next game he is able to play in. Before this season, Taylor had rushed for 4,582 yards during his first four seasons. This gives him an average of 1,145.5 yards. If we take the .5 off at the end and assume he rushes for at least 1,145 yards each season, he would pass 10,000 during his ninth season, which he would have him at 29 years old. So it's certainly possible, but the elephant in the room that could prevent him from doing it is his recent stretch of injuries.
Over the last two seasons, Taylor has only played in 11 (2022) and ten games (2023). He wasn't able to rush for over 1,000 yards in either season, meaning the last time he did so came in 2021 when he set his career high with 1,811 yards. The trend of him missing time has already peaked its head into this season with him missing the team's Week 5 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars with a high ankle sprain he suffered near the end of their Week 4 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
So, if we look at his averages per game, Taylor averages 86.5 yards per game. Rushing for the final 5,069 yards needed to reach 10,000, Taylor would take 59 games of him rushing for 86.5 yards. Which is essentially double the number of games he's played to date. So, it's undoubtedly possible for Taylor to join this elite group. But he will have to be significantly healthier going forward than he has been over the past three years.
