Can Matt Duchene’s Extension Offer Clues For John Tavares’ Next Contract With The Maple Leafs?

One of the few center options the Toronto Maple Leafs could've had in free agency is now off the market.

After a strong season with the Dallas Stars, Matt Duchene signed a four-year, $18 million extension with the club that went to the Western Conference Final against the Edmonton Oilers. It'll see him being paid $4.5 million per season.

Duchene's 82 points — 30 goals and 52 assists — in as many games was the most among Stars players during the regular season. It's also the most points he's had in a year since 2021-22 when he scored 86 points in 78 games.

Duchene followed up a strong regular season with just one goal and five assists in 18 playoff games, centering Dallas' second line. The 34-year-old could've fit nicely within a Maple Leafs core, which could shift John Tavares — if he returns, and it appears likely he will — to the third-line center spot entering next season.

But how much could Tavares make, compared to the contract Duchene just signed?

I'll start by saying this: there are a lot of numbers out there about what Tavares might get annually, how long his contract will be, and what the final number could look like. However, Duchene signing a $4.5 million AAV deal makes me believe Tavares' number could be around $5 million, or more, annually.

There's two reasons for that.

First, Duchene only pays federal tax on his $4.5 million salary. If Tavares wanted to bring in a similar number to Duchene, the Maple Leafs' assistant captain would need to sign a deal earning him nearly $6 million annually.

I can't see his AAV getting that high only because of a possible hometown discount. He said it himself during locker cleanout day: he wants to remain a Maple Leaf. He even said it minutes after a stunning 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers in Game 7.

"Would you like to be back?" A reporter asked. "Yes," Tavares swiftly replied.

It's a lot of work to uproot your family, especially after returning home from Long Island in 2018. It's even harder when you've developed roots in Toronto like Tavares has, with three children. I can't see him wanting to do that again, especially with his devotion to the Maple Leafs.

The other reason why Tavares should make more than Duchene is that he's been more consistent than the Stars' forward.

Tavares has played 46 more games than Duchene, yet has 223 more points (123 more goals and 100 more assists) than the Haliburton, Ontario, native. Duchene has been a point-per-game player twice in the regular season, while Tavares has done it five times.

Tavares was also among the NHL's top 15 goal scorers this season with 38 goals.

In this spring's playoffs, too, Tavares outduelled Duchene. Duchene had six points in 18 games, none being at five-on-five, while Tavares scored seven points in 13 games, three of which were at five-on-five.

They're close, but not that close.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tavares' AAV came in at around, or just over $5 million. That's what he deserves. But hey, if he and the Maple Leafs can find a way to go lower, via a longer-term deal or deferring some salary, it gives the club more flexibility to find another center.