The Montreal Canadiens have openly admitted they want to make a splash this summer, which would act as an accelerant in regard to the team’s long-term rebuild plans.
“It’s a huge summer for us,” explained V.P. Of Hockey Operations Jeff Gorton. “We want to set ourselves up pretty well.”
It’s a logical approach given their situation.
The Habs will have drafted in the top 5 in three consecutive seasons, have plenty of cap space, and own one of the youngest lineups in the NHL. It’s also worth pointing out that many of the core players, including captain Nick Suzuki, are champing at the bit to taste a little success.
With that in mind, the Canadiens must still be careful in their planning. Due diligence is in order, lest the team follow the path of the Ottawa Senators or Buffalo Sabres, organizations that seem to be stuck in a perpetual sadness thanks to their never-ending rebuilds.
The harsh truth is that rebuilds are difficult, and staying at the bottom of the standings for several years does not guarantee success. Even the Oilers, who were gifted two of the best players in the world, took almost a decade to make it to the Stanley Cup final.
There is no Connor McDavid in Montreal’s future, let alone a Leon Draisaitl, which means they have to be even more diligent when looking for star power in the NHL’s trade market, seeing as they will undoubtedly have to spend quality assets to acquire a player who can push them to the next level.
Montreal Canadiens Trade Target Options
There are three players available for trade who could immediately improve the Canadiens’ lineup: Trevor Zegras (Anaheim Ducks), Martin Necas, and Jake Guentzel (Carolina Hurricanes).
We’ve already discussed the pros and cons of a trade involving Zegras, and we touched upon the possibility a player like Necas could join the fold, which means it’s time to compare all three aforementioned trade targets to get a better idea of which one would be a good fit with the Habs.
The first thing we’ll examine is the cost of acquisition.
There’s a significant discrepancy in the price tags, as Zegras and Necas are reportedly being shopped for a king’s ransom, whereas Guentzel’s rights can be acquired for a mid-round pick. This lines up well with their overall potential, as Zegras and Necas are 23 and 25-years old, respectively, while Guentzel will turn 30 by the time the 2024-25 season is ready to get underway.
We won’t spend too much time analyzing their underlying numbers, but suffice it to say, the two players who spent time with the Hurricanes last year have much better possession numbers than the player who spent his time with the lowly Anaheim Ducks. On that note, don’t expect either former Cane to produce elite underlying numbers should they join the Canadiens, at least not immediately.
As for their production, it’s quite clear which player is currently bringing the most to the table at 5v5.
Guentzel is well ahead of both Necas and Zegras in goals per 60, assists per 60, points per 60, and individual high-danger chances per 60. All three players maintained a shooting percentage that lines up with their career averages at 5v5, which means we aren’t dealing with any sort of inflated production due to puck luck.
Other Trade Factors To Consider
While it’s clear Guentzel is the better player today, he’s also exiting his statistical prime, while Zegras is just about to enter his, and Necas is just starting to enjoy prime seasons.
This suggests Guentzel’s value will slowly, yet surely decline, whereas the other two players have better odds of improving their overall impact when the Canadiens would need it most.
There’s also the matter of salary cap hits.
Kent Hughes has plenty of financial manoeuvrability when it comes to adding contracts to the mix, but many teams have been burned by acquiring star players who are on the precipice of a decline. Guentzel is in the final year of a five-year contract that carries a $6 million annual average value (AAV), which means it’s likely the final time in his career he’ll be able to pick the team he’ll play with while also commanding a rather rich pay cheque.
The name of the game for any player heading into Guentzel’s situation is term and money.
Zegras still has two years left on his contract, which pays him a very reasonable $5.75 million per season, a price tag that allows for some value in the next two seasons. On the other side of the coin, Zegras will be looking for a healthy raise once his bridge contract expires. He’ll be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2026, which mitigates some of the risk in contract negotiations.
Necas is expected to be looking for a significant raise. He’s also a restricted free agent, however, he’s yet to sign a rich contract in the NHL. The Hurricanes got tremendous value from his two-year extension that paid him $3 million AAV, but that certainly won’t be the case for the team that trades for the talented forward. Necas is expected to demand upward of $6.5 million per season on a long-term contract.
Montreal Canadiens Trade Targets – Brass Tacks
All three Montreal Canadiens trade targets play down the middle of the ice, with Guentzel bringing a little more to the table in terms of versatility, as he has experience playing both centre and on the wing.
In terms of their playing style, Guentzel once again leads the charge. That’s not to say Necas and Zegras couldn’t possibly mesh with head coach Martin St-Louis’ strategies, but there certainly would be a learning curve, especially when it comes to their defensive play.
Simply put, if the Canadiens want a player who will make a massive impact and bring them to the next level immediately, Guentzel is the right target. But if they want to bet on potential while keeping statistical primes in mind, they should look to a player like Zegras or Necas.
