Colts' Alec Pierce Emerged as Elite Deep Threat in 2024

Indianapolis Colts' wide receiver Alec Pierce entered the 2024 offseason with immense pressure to perform. The former second-round pick enjoyed a comfortable role as a starter in his first two years of play, but his lack of high-end production (albeit with quarterbacks that couldn't play to his strengths) led to the team investing in AD Mitchell in the draft.

Most analysts expected that the shiny new toy in Mitchell would beat out Pierce in camp and secure a starting role on the outside. Mitchell was an impressive project to look forward to, standing at 6'2" with a blazing 4.34-second forty-yard dash at the NFL combine. Mitchell's elite speed, size, and route running led to the expectation that Pierce would be surpassed in camp, but that simply never happened. Instead, the Colts got the best possible version of Pierce in 2024.

The Colts' coaching staff first noticed Pierce's change in play in the summer, with GM Chris Ballard even calling it the "best camp of his career." He showcased the ability to play inside and out, made an effort to play more special teams, and made several big plays down the field in the vertical passing game. That massive camp led to him securing his starting spot on the outside, and he finished the 2024 season with the second most snaps at the position.

Pierce also posted career-high numbers in several categories. He hit new highs in receiving yards (824), receiving touchdowns (seven), and yards per reception (22.3). Pierce actually led the NFL in yards per reception among all pass catchers with at least 30 targets last season and ranked number 15 in receiving EPA per target. By all accounts, Pierce had an impressive breakout campaign for the Colts.

So today, let's dive into Pierce's game and discuss his strengths and what led to his emergence.

Positives

Deep Ball Ability

Pierce was, without a doubt, the best deep ball specialist in the NFL last season. It was his calling card at the college level, and the Colts always expected him to thrive in this role in the NFL, but nobody anticipated a season like he had a year ago. Pierce was force-fed the ball in the vertical plane, with a startling 43.5% of his targets coming 20 yards down the field. For proper context, the next highest qualified receiver in that metric was George Pickens at 29.1%.

Despite opposing defenses knowing that Pierce operates primarily as a vertical threat, teams struggled to stop him from scoring. Hs receiving EPA on downfield targets ranked number 10 among all pass catchers and he ranked number six in the NFL with 12 receptions with 20+ air yards. He had multiple 40+ yard receptions as well, including a memorable fourth quarter against teh Jacksonville Jaguars where he racked up 134 yards on three receptions to bring the team back late.

Pierce may have been a role player for the Colts last season, but he operated at an elite level within that role.

Big Moment Winner

Pierce consistently shone in big moments last season. He excelled in his limited targets on third/fourth down, hauling nine of his 16 receptions for 186 yards and two touchdowns. His most memorable play came on a fourth and one against the New England Patriots late in the fourth quarter. The Colts trailed by seven with under a minute in the game, and Pierce was able to find space in the back of the endzone to set up the Colts' go-ahead two-point conversion shortly after.

The Colts struggled on third downs last season, but Pierce was a consistent bright spot in this area. The team boasted a 56% conversion rate with him as the primary target in high leverage situations, which would be among the best in the NFL when extrapolated across an entire season. Obviously numbers change with a higher sample size, but this at least paints a picture that Pierce made some big plays when it counted in 2024.

50-50 Balls

Pierce made several impressive receptions last season that bailed the Colts out of bad throws or poor decisions. His ability to track down tip balls was a massive plus, and he hauled in a few insane highlight reel plays. The biggest obviously being his one-handed tip drill from Joe Flacco late against the Jaguars in week five.

There is still room for Pierce to improve in this area (his contested catch rate was around 47% last year), but it is nice to have a big bodied receiver that isn't afraid to attack the ball in the air and win some tough catches. He displayed outstanding hands and poise on several occasions last year.

Finding Space in Zone

Pierce is a limited receiver; there is no escaping that truth. He is a high-cut player with tighter hips, and his route running will always suffer as a result. He can't move as fluidly as players like Mitchell or even Michael Pittman Jr. in the open field. Instead of letting this fatal flaw be the end of him, Pierce grew in other areas of his game. He became an outstanding zone-beater on the outside.

Pierce learned how to identify zone coverage, find windows down the field, and create space for his quarterback. He especially thrived in the scramble drill, as he became available for his quarterback more often than not when the play broke down. Developing this part of his game allowed for Pierce to become a more well-rounded player, which in turn helped propel his game during his breakout season in 2024.

Negatives

Separation

Pierce may not have many negatives in his game, but his one big negative does limit him in a lot of ways. He is an explosive, straight-line receiver who excels vertically down the field and understands how to find space against zone coverage, but he lacks the twitch and the suddenness to be a true separator off the line of scrimmage. The Colts understand his limitations and use him accordingly, hence the sky-high usage down the field and in contested catch situations.

Pierce has found a way to be a high end role player despite this fatal flaw, but it's hard to see his role ever increasing beyond that. He just doesn't have the ability to win his routes cleanly and, as a result, he has to lean into contested catches and jump balls more often than not. His ceiling in the NFL is limited, which is a big reason why the Colts tried to replace him with Mitchell.

Players with a limited ceiling still offer utility in the NFL, but that boundary will likely always exist for Pierce unless he finds a way to add more suddenness and fluidity to his game.

The Bottom Line

Pierce was incredible for the Colts last season. His chemistry with Anthony Richardson and, to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco was a sight to behold, and the Colts were finally able to unlock Piece as a true vertical threat last season. He was the ideal starter on the outside with his ability to win contested catches, his tendency to find space against zone coverage, and his reliability in clutch situations.

There may forever be a ceiling on Pierce's game that limits him to being a number two or three in the passing game for his career, but that's perfectly fine. NFL rosters aren't built out of 53 perfect players, sometimes a good role player is the missing piece of the puzzle. Pierce may just be a deep threat, but he is one of the best players in the league at what he does. I'd rather have an elite deep threat that can occasionally do other things than a player that is just adequate at everything.

The Colts will have a tough decision to make with Pierce at the conclusion of the 2025 season (when his contract expires) but for now, it's fun to have a player with his tendency to make big plays. He should have a massive role yet again in 2025, and I expect him to continue performing at a high level as a vertical threat going forward.