Drawing a parallel between the early-2000s Battle of Ontario and a potential Maple Leafs-Senators playoff series

The Toronto Maple Leafs have clinched a playoff spot for the ninth season in a row, and for the first time in a while, their first round opponent is still up in the air with only six games remaining. For the past few years, it always felt destined that the Leafs were going to get one of the Florida teams or the Boston Bruins in the first round, but in 2024-25, it’s entirely possible we’ll see an old classic of a playoff matchup for the first time in 20 years. This, of course, is the Battle of Ontario with the Ottawa Senators.

With the Washington Capitals all but guaranteed to finish first in the Eastern Conference, the Leafs will find themselves facing the team occupying the first wildcard spot should they maintain their division lead over the next six games. Who currently occupies the first wildcard spot, you may ask? None other than the Senators.

It’s been a rough go for the Senators since their last playoff berth in 2016-17. They missed the playoffs in each of their seven seasons leading up to this season, but the optimism for a step forward has been in place every year since former general manager Pierre Dorion said that he believed the rebuild was finished prior to the 2021-22 season (spoiler alert, it was not). Despite no playoff appearances in this time, the Senators have given this version of the Maple Leafs their fair share of troubles. The Leafs have lost five straight games to the Senators and have only won three of their last ten games against them, with their last win coming in December 2023.

Despite the years of hardship in Ottawa, the Senators have a new feeling of life around them. Despite some familiar bumps in the road early in the season, they made a big swing at the deadline in trading for Buffalo Sabres forward Dylan Cozens and also added Fabian Zetterlund in a trade with the San Jose Sharks. Since then, they’ve been playing with an extra chip on their shoulder, looking to silence their doubters and capitalizing on the momentum of being firmly in the race down the final stretch of the season. They’re even playing well enough to have people wondering if they’ve got enough juice to pass the Florida Panthers for third place in the Atlantic.

Outside of the dread that comes with the thought of potentially losing a playoff series to the Senators, this would objectively be the best-case scenario for all parties. First of all, it would be an electric series. The Leafs and Senators haven’t met in the playoffs since 2003-04, and even without the extra pull from the Battle of Ontario, it would simply be a refreshing change as opposed to facing the Tampa Bay Lightning for the third time in four years or the Boston Bruins for what would feel like the 100th time. It would also potentially be the most exciting way to welcome the Senators back to the dance, with a chance to take advantage of both their regular season success against the Maple Leafs and the Leafs’ continued struggles in the playoffs each year.

With the Senators’ recent domination of the Maple Leafs in the regular season, it’s hard not to draw a parallel to the Battle of Ontario from the early 2000s. Just like recently, Ottawa used to walk all over the Leafs in the regular season. Between 2000-01, 2001-02, and 2003-04, the four seasons that saw a Battle of Ontario at one point, the Maple Leafs went a combined 6-7-3 over the Senators. And yet, the Maple Leafs came out victorious in each of the three playoff series they had against the Senators in the 21st century. The most glaring of these examples came in 2000-01, when the Leafs went 0-4-1 against Ottawa in the regular season, only to sweep them in the first round of the playoffs. The following season, they went 2-2-1 against Ottawa in the regular season before defeating them in seven games in the second round. Two years after that, they had an uncharacteristically good regular season against them with a 4-1-1 record before defeating them in seven games in the first round.

The Maple Leafs had a very blue-collar vibe during those early 2000s playoff runs. It’s why you see so many fans who speak affectionately of players like Darcy Tucker and Gary Roberts. The Leafs had their skilled players, but they were very much a team that was built on the basis of hard work and grinding out wins instead of relying on league-best talent to carry them. Not to say that the current Leafs are like that, but under head coach Craig Berube, 12 different players have fighting majors on the season, and there’s been a clear emphasis on establishing a team toughness mentality and standing up for teammates. If anything, this year’s Leafs are closer to the early 2000s team than anything the Kyle Dubas/Sheldon Keefe-era Leafs iced.

The one grey area in these comparisons here is the elephant in the room: how the Leafs will fare in a potential playoff series against Ottawa. On paper, you would think the Leafs have the clear edge. They’ve gotten excellent goaltending, they have a completely revamped defensive corps, and despite the evergreen question of whether the star players will elevate in the moment and score the big goal when the team needs it, they’ve got another year of experience under their belts. This series would be reminiscent of the Leafs’ first playoff series in the Matthews era against the Capitals, where they showed some fight and inspired hope for the future, but their inexperience in the postseason eventually prevailed in the form of a 4-2 series loss to Ottawa. But, covering this team specifically, ‘on paper’ will only get you so far. The Leafs have lost series to teams that were below .500 heading into the playoffs, so in no way should the Senators be taken as an easy out, and I’m sure the Maple Leafs know this better than anyone.

In the end, a Leafs-Senators series would be a win-win for the Maple Leafs, with one win being highly preferred to the other. If the Leafs were to win a hypothetical series against Ottawa, it would be twice as satisfying to do it against a heated rival, and it would inject them with some momentum in hopes of going on a meaningful playoff run (not immediately suffering a second-round gentleman’s sweep like they did to Florida in 2022-23). If they were to lose this series, it would pretty much confirm a change to the core players this summer. Their general manger has had a full season to address this team’s needs by now, and they’re on their third head coach in this era, so with Mitch Marner and John Tavares both on expiring deals, there really isn’t any excuse to run it back for a tenth time if they go out in seven games or less again.

Either way, the Battle of Ontario is a very real possibility and one that everybody should be rooting for, regardless of the Leafs’ regular season struggles against the Senators.