The Atlanta Falcons haven't been very successful drafting high upside defensive players to fill holes in their front seven over recent years. But none of those high upside draft prospects were first-round choices.
Could the Falcons roll the dice on a high upside defensive prospect in the first round this spring? A senior editor and staff writer for the team argued it's possible.
Atlantafalcons.com's Will McFadden named Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen as a potential target for the Falcons at No. 15 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
"Pound for pound, Nolen might be the most physically gifted defensive lineman in this class. A top recruit coming out of high school, Nolan is an attacking defender who excels at gaining a half-man advantage and pressing upfield," McFadden wrote. "He's not as polished a pass rusher as his athletic profile would suggest, but the upside is apparent.
"Nolen was named an All-American in 2024 because of his ability to make impact plays, which is something Atlanta needs on defense."
According to the latest draft big board from NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah, Nolen is a late first-round prospect as the No. 28 overall player. On previous renditions of his big board, Jeremiah has rated Nolen outside of his top 32 prospects.
But on Jeremiah's latest big board, Nolen rose six spots. On ESPN's big board, Nolen is ranked the third-best defensive tackle and No. 26 overall prospect.
Jeremiah has raved about Nolen's potential this offseason.
"Nolen is a twitchy defensive tackle who fits best in a penetrating style of defense. Ole Miss slanted him quite often in its defensive scheme and he created some early wins versus the run and pass," Jeremiah wrote. "Overall, Nolen is extremely talented and disruptive, but he hasn’t come close to reaching his potential.
"If he lands with the right scheme/coach, he could emerge as one of the better players in this draft class."
Potential is sometimes a dangerous thing when it comes to the NFL Draft. With more potential exists more upside. But potential is also an indirect way of saying a prospect has yet to perform at the level expected based on his natural ability.
There's always risk to taking those types of players. But there's also tremendous reward.
The basic rule of thumb is not to take a huge risk with a first-round selection. That's where NFL teams have to get starters who are going to be roster center stones for five years.
With the Falcons struggling in many areas on defense during 2024, that's all the more reason the organization should target a more "sure thing" at No. 15 overall this year.
But at the same time, there are few "sure things," if any, in the NFL Draft.
The other intriguing thing about Nolen is he could offer the Falcons a trade back scenario. The Falcons only have four picks this year. If the Falcons want Nolen, but they see him staying on the board for as long as Jeremiah and ESPN predict, the Falcons could move back, acquire more draft capital and still select him.
It will be interesting to see if Nolen to the Falcons gains any steam in NFL mock drafts over the next two and a half weeks. At least one team employee sees a scenario where the Ole Miss product lands in Atlanta.
