Falcons is a coaching change coming?

The Atlanta Falcons are on a two-game losing streak heading into the bye week. More discouragingly, they might be in the middle of a four-game losing streak considering how poorly they have played of late and the strength of their next two opponents — the Los Angeles Chargers in Atlanta on Dec. 1 and the Minnesota Vikings on the road on Dec. 8.

What once looked like a leisurely stroll to a division title now has the specter of collapse around it. The numbers, though, are still in the Falcons’ favor.

Atlanta (6-5) has an 84 percent chance to win the NFC South and an 85 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s latest projections. The Falcons still play the Carolina Panthers (3-7), New York Giants (2-8) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-8). If they win all three (and lose to the Chargers, Vikings and Washington Commanders), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) would have to go 6-1 down the stretch to win the division because the Falcons already have beaten the Buccaneers twice. Tampa Bay plays only one more team with a winning record, but that’s still an improbable outcome.

The New Orleans Saints (4-7), who are 1-1 against Atlanta this season, would have to go 5-2, and Carolina would have to go 6-1 to get into the conversation against a 9-8 Atlanta. Those scenarios are evenly less likely than Tampa Bay closing 6-1.

So, if the measure of a successful season is just making the playoffs, the Falcons still look like they’re on their way to a successful season, but our opening question of Thursday’s mailbag wonders if that should be considered a success.

This team is barreling toward a 9-8 season, with losses to the Chargers and Vikings pretty much set in stone. That being said, a four-game winning streak (if Washington regresses) in the home stretch is plausible and sets us up for a first-round loss to whoever we play in the wild-card round out of the NFC North. Is that a successful season, in your estimation? — Paul S.

No, and here’s why: Since last year’s disastrous season finale against New Orleans, the Falcons have behaved like a team that expected to be more than that. When Arthur Smith was fired, team CEO Rich McKay said he and team owner Arthur Blank believed the team was ready to compete “at the highest level” and needed a head coaching change to do that.

The Falcons’ draft strategy — taking a quarterback for the future instead of a pass rusher in the first round and using two picks in the top four rounds to take developmental defensive linemen — suggested they believed they had the players to win now. Trading for edge rusher Matthew Judon and signing free-agent safety Justin Simmons in training camp were presented as moves that would shore up weak spots that might put a low ceiling on this team’s potential.

Given all that, limping into the playoffs and losing at home in the first round can’t be framed as a success even though it would be the first postseason trip since the 2017 season.

By the way, as things stand, that first-round opponent out of the NFC North would be the Vikings. Kirk Cousins in the playoffs versus the team that let him walk because it wasn’t convinced he was the quarterback to take it over the top would be a pretty juicy storyline.

Is there any chance Jimmy Lake could be fired midseason? — Cameron H.

This is the NFL, so there’s always a chance a coach or coordinator could get fired when things aren’t going well. When coach Raheem Morris was asked Monday about the possibility of coaching changes during the bye week, he didn’t rule it out, but he also didn’t sound like a guy thinking about that type of change.

“You always evaluate everything you do every single day,” Morris said. “We do that on a week-to-week basis. Everything is always going to be up for discussion. We are never going to stay stagnant. Everything is always going to be evaluated. There’s no major things going on. I’ve got no breaking news for you. I think the most important part is being helpful rather than being negative.”

Lake is insulated by the fact Morris is a defensive-minded head coach, and Morris had to expect there would be a learning curve for Lake, who is in his first year of coordinating an NFL defense. I don’t expect Lake to be fired, but it’s worth remembering that Steve Wilks hung around for a couple of days during training camp and is friendly with Morris.

Wilks, who has coordinated three NFL defenses and interviewed for the Falcons’ head coaching job in January, served as a volunteer adviser to the Charlotte 49ers college team earlier this year, but Charlotte fired head coach Biff Poggi earlier this week. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if Wilks shows up in some capacity in Atlanta, even if it’s just advisory, but the more likely defensive “fix” for the Falcons is Morris taking on a more active role in the game planning and play calling.

.@LJ_Humphrey23 breaks free for the 41-yard TD!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/E3Y6P4obUo

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 17, 2024

While not exactly the ’77 Grits Blitz or 2000 Baltimore Ravens, Ryan Nielsen’s 2023 defense ranked 11th in total yards allowed, including only 203 passing yards, which ranked eighth. Nielsen’s intensity seemed to rub off on his players, and his hybrid scheme leveraged their talents better than Dean Pees’ 3-4 in previous years. But then came Lake, Morris’ buddy, after a brief tenure at the University of Washington, bringing back a 3-4 and squeezing less out of his personnel than the man he replaced. What’s the word around the building about Lake? Is he respected by the team? Is this scheme possibly Morris’ vision more than his? What are the chances Morris will replace Lake now or after the season? — Randall P.

The Falcons’ defensive players all speak highly of Lake, and that appears genuine, but it’s helpful to remember that Morris is ultimately in charge of the defense. I addressed the possibility of replacing Lake above, but the comparison to Nielsen’s defense is worth considering.

The Falcons had 42 sacks last season under Nielsen, their third-highest total since 2000, and their defensive EPA was their best since 2000 (6.4 per 100 snaps). It doesn’t appear Morris ever seriously considered retaining Nielsen, and it would have been an awkward fit because of Nielsen’s man-heavy, 4-3 scheme and Morris’ background playing more zone out of 3-4, but the simple thought that comes to mind is “Wouldn’t this defense be a lot better under the last guy?”

There’s no simple answer to that, though. Nielsen was hired as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defensive coordinator after Morris let him leave, and the Jaguars defense has been awful this season. Jacksonville is 30th in points allowed (28.7) and last in defensive EPA (minus-13.4 per 100 snaps) and just gave up 52 points to the Detroit Lions.

If someone were to crunch the numbers and simply count snaps played, the Falcons must surely be getting the least out of their 2024 draft class, by far, over every other NFL team. I can’t imagine another team as close to the Falcons in playing their draft picks so little. Who is to blame for this? Did general manager Terry Fontenot pick badly? Did Morris have a lot of input into the picks and want a lot of bad players? Has picking the best player available gone off the rails, to where the Falcons’ player evaluations on who to pick were terrible? Any comment on the idea that not playing the players much/at all in 2024 isn’t getting them ready for 2025? — Jason S.

Thanks to the good folks at TruMedia, I was able to run the numbers on this fairly quickly, and I’m stunned to announce that the Falcons do not have the lowest rookie participation of the season. That distinction goes to the Vikings, although the Falcons aren’t far behind.

The Vikings have gotten 340 snaps out of their rookie draft class, according to TruMedia. The Falcons are next to last at 459. The Cleveland Browns (544) and Miami Dolphins (802) are the only other teams with fewer than 1,000 snaps by rookie draft picks. On average, NFL teams have gotten 1,872 snaps out of their 2024 draft picks.

The Falcons’ low number is partially due to planning and partially due to injuries. They spent the No. 8 pick on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback they didn’t plan to play much, if at all, this year. (The Vikings, in contrast, expected to play J.J. McCarthy when they drafted him at No. 10, but McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in training camp.) The Falcons also picked Ruke Orhorhoro in the second round and Brandon Dorlus in the fourth round with the idea they would be backups behind veterans. Combined, the rookie defensive linemen have been healthy and on the inactive list for 14 games this season.

On the injury front, third-round edge rusher Bralen Trice suffered a season-ending knee injury in a preseason game; Orhorhoro is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and fifth-round linebacker JD Bertrand has been inactive for the past three weeks because of a concussion.

Bertrand is the Falcons’ most active rookie with 230 snaps, 155 of which have come on special teams. No other rookie has played more than 80 snaps.

As for who is to blame, “everyone” is the right answer. The Falcons pride themselves on a collaborative effort among ownership, the front office and the coaching staff, and it appears everyone was on board with this plan. The fault seems to be the plan, which was to spend more draft capital on the future than the present.