Flyers’ final game can significantly shift Draft Lottery odds

Depending on if they win or lose, the Flyers’ Draft Lottery odds can either be one of the best or sink to a mediocre option.

The Philadelphia Flyers are comfortably hanging around the bottom of the NHL’s standings. With a 33-38-10 record through 81 games, this entire season has essentially been a write-off for total team success, and instead has shifted to some bright spots like Matvei Michkov’s rookie year and finding out more about some of the young players.

That aside, the focus among the entire Flyers fan base through the last couple of months — ever since it was clear that the Flyers are going to miss the playoffs — has been the odds for the upcoming Draft Lottery with their own first-round pick this year. With every result, some try to play off wins as a good development tool, while others just want this entire team to barely play the sport of hockey while on the ice and lose as much as possible.

Well, now the Flyers appear to have their fate boiled down to the very final game of their season Thursday against the Buffalo Sabres. Depending on how many points they earn against the also-bad team, it will lock them in to their lottery odds.

Typically, there is very little wiggle room with just one final game. Maybe you can hope for the two teams beneath your team to win and then your team to lose for a very mild ascent up the lottery odds rankings — but not so much that depending on just one result, it can be a three-spot swing.

Essentially, if the Flyers win against Buffalo they sink down the lottery standings, but if they lose they can now be comfortable in knowing they are getting a very good prospect. It all boils down to this:

• Flyers win in regulation against the Sabres and they have the seventh-best odds

• Flyers win in overtime or in a shootout, or lose in overtime or in a shootout, and they have the sixth-best odds
• Flyers lose in regulation and they finish with the fourth-best odds

This is as significant of a swing you can really get with just one single game.

In terms of the lottery, we can further break it down by odds of where the Flyers would be selecting depending on how Thursday night goes, thanks to our pals at Tankathon.

So essentially, if the Flyers manage to lose and climb to the fourth spot, they increase their odds at winning the lottery by just a couple of percentage points, but that’s not what it is really about. As clearly laid out in the table, a team can only drop down by a maximum of two draft spots. That is in the case of teams below them being the ones that leapfrog them and win one of the lotteries for the top two spots. So, if the Flyers lose Thursday, the worst-case scenario is them selecting sixth, but if they win, then they could potentially drop all the way to the ninth-overall selection.

But why is this important? Who would the Flyers potentially select if they end up in the fourth spot, or drop down to nine?

With all the recent draft rankings and mock drafts coming out from public scouts, it could be the difference between being able to draft Boston College center James Hagens, who would surely be a top-six center that can heavily complement skilled wingers (like a Matvei Michkov) for the next decade; and drafting defenseman Jackson Smith or winger Lyndon Lakovic.

Of course, those two other options are perfectly fine prospects. They are still projected to be impact players in the NHL and could play significant roles on good teams, but it would essentially be the Flyers adding to the pool of great-not-elite prospects they have. With this lost season, it is the opportunity to get a game-changing prospect, not on the level of face-of-the-franchise Michkov, but someone who we could all pencil in at the top of the lineup when they turn pro.

It is just another NHL Draft and surely some wild thing is going to happen and maybe the Flyers will be able to select Hagens even if they win on Thursday, or grab another player that suddenly falls into their lap. But increasing your odds can only be a positive, so all eyes will be on if the Sabres can do the thing that they haven’t been able to do a lot in this decade: Win a hockey game.