Is Nathan MacKinnon Underpaid?

According to The Athletic’s NHL’s 10 best contracts, Colorado Avalanche superstar is underpaid by a large margin.

That could be true.

MacKinnon is currently the third-highest paid player in the NHL, earning $12.6 million per year. This past season, the 29-year-old posted 116 points (32 goals, 84 assists) in 79 games played. The year prior, which was his best to date, saw MacKinnon play all 82 regular season games with a career-high 140 points (51 goals, 89 assists). In other words, MacKinnon was playing out of his mind. The two other players who make more money than him are Auston Matthews ($13.2 million AAV), and Leon Draisaitl ($14 million AAV).

Over the past two seasons, Matthews has a combined 185 points. MacKinnon, on the other hand, has 256 and has a Stanley Cup championship, as well as a Hart Memorial Trophy, awarded to league MVP, on his résumé. Draisaitl has posted 106 points the last two seasons and has scored at least 100 points per year in six of the last seven years. He has also won a Hart as well as a Maurice Rocket Richard Trophy, which is awarded to the player who scores the most goals in a single season.

What emerges from this comparison is not so much evidence that MacKinnon is undercompensated, but rather a clearer indication that the Maple Leafs are allocating a disproportionate premium to Matthews—though, given the organizational turmoil in Toronto, such a decision is expected.

As the salary cap continues to rise, MacKinnon’s contract will certainly represent a bargain for the team.

How Much Should MacKinnon Get Paid?

The Athletic believes MacKinnon’s contract should be worth $18.3 million AAV based on their valuation model. While that figure exceeds his existing contract by a significant margin, it gains credence when contextualized within the NHL’s projected salary cap trajectory.

The NHL circulated a memo to teams in January that the salary cap would jump to $95.5 million for the upcoming season from $88 million. This will follow with subsequent jumps in the cap to $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28. Let’s say the cap remains at $113.5 million when MacKinnon’s contract expires at the end of the 2030-2031 season. That $18.3 million would account for roughly 16% of the cap.

MacKinnon will be 35 years old at the time of his free agency eligibility in 2031. Historically, players at this stage of their careers—regardless of prior dominance—rarely receive contracts reflecting full-market value, particularly not over long durations. For reference, even Alex Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer ever, accepted a relative discount in 2021, re-signing with the Washington Capitals on a five-year, $47.5 million contract rather than exploring more lucrative options in unrestricted free agency.

Ultimately, the precise valuation of MacKinnon’s next contract will hinge on several interdependent factors: his on-ice production, health, leadership impact, and the state of the Avalanche as a whole. Should he maintain or exceed his current output, a salary in the $18 million to $19.5 million range would be consistent with his cap-adjusted market value. Conversely, if his performance regresses to a level that is still impactful but no longer elite, a more modest contract in the range of $13.5 million to $15 million AAV may be warranted—particularly if Colorado seeks to preserve cap flexibility for a younger squad.

We also have to think about the upcoming Cale Makar extension. His current six-year contract runs through the end of the 2026-27 season, with a $9 million AAV cap hit. The cap should settle at $104 million in 2026-27 and let’s say Makar gets eight years at $16.5 million. So two players will make up for about 32% of the cap give or take. In summary, while it is premature to definitively project MacKinnon’s future earnings, The Athletic’s valuation is right on the money should he continue to perform as one of the league’s premier forwards deep into his thirties.