By Joe Smith, Shayna Goldman and Pierre LeBrun
The Tampa Bay Lightning acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh and the Edmonton Oilers’ 2024 fourth-round draft pick from the Nashville Predators in exchange for the Lightning’s 2024 seventh-round pick and 2025 second-round pick.
McDonagh, 34, won back-to-back Stanley Cup titles with Tampa Bay in 2020 and 2021 and spent just over four seasons with the Lightning before being traded to the Predators in 2022-23. He was then in Nashville for two years.
Tampa Bay wanted to add a top-four defender this summer. Going the unrestricted free-agent route likely would have meant a larger deal. The two years left on McDonagh’s deal with a $6.75 million average annual value made sense for the Lightning to reunite with a player they know well.
The Predators will retain no salary in the trade.
Details 👉 https://t.co/zDDVRd71Wt pic.twitter.com/Lr8w00kq2H
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) May 21, 2024
McDonagh accounted for three goals and 29 assists in 74 games with Nashville last season.
“Quite honestly, I didn’t really see a scenario of me being back in Tampa while on this contract,” McDonagh said. “So when I was informed, it’s hard not to be excited about it. It’s mixed emotions. Your heart and everything is all in with Nashville, but for myself, selfishly, my hockey career, but also my family and my three kids, at the end of the day, moving back to Tampa is what I feel is best for all of those.”
“There’s a handful of guys on that team that are still proven winners, and it’s hard not to overlook,” McDonagh said. “There’s new guys I haven’t played with yet that I hope I can play alongside too. That core group, to be back with them again, it’s hard not to make you believe again that something special can be done again once more.”
Why the Lightning made the trade
There’s no doubt the Lightning missed McDonagh since the stunning July 4 weekend deal with the Predators two years ago. Not just on the ice, where McDonagh was a shutdown defenseman. But McDonagh was a major leader in the room, a connector and things hadn’t been the same since he left.
This move helps that, especially with the recent losses of Alex Killorn and the uncertainty surrounding the contract for captain Steven Stamkos. The Lightning still hope to re-sign Stamkos, who becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1. Same with Victor Hedman, an unrestricted free agent a year from now.
But with McDonagh carrying a $6.75 million cap hit in the next two seasons, it gives them roughly $5.5 million of cap space for next season. So perhaps this could signal another potential move coming.
This deal makes the Lightning better defensively at five-on-five — a primary focus. And while it makes them bigger on the back end, it does create a cap crunch to where you wonder what the next domino might be.
Tampa Bay was believed to be close but missed out on Noah Hanifin at the trade deadline. It got its veteran blue-line help now.
What will McDonagh bring to Tampa Bay in his second act?
The Lightning’s decision to move McDonagh made a ton of sense back in 2022. As excellent as he was defensively, at 33 years old, he was also at the age where a lot of defensemen tend to trend in the wrong direction. The Lightning were tight on cap space, which tends to be the case for championship-caliber teams, and made a measured decision to move on for the remaining four years of his deal.
The McDonagh deal ended up decimating the Lightning’s blue line. Mikhail Sergachev struggled to take on matchup minutes in 2022-23, while Erik Cernak (when healthy) wasn’t as effective without his mainstay partner.
While a lot of signs, from age to playing style, pointed to a potential decline in McDonagh’s game, he has shown what a quality defenseman he still is at this point.
He was one of the most effective skaters on both ends of the ice in Nashville this year at five-on-five, with a positive impact on the Predators’ expected goal creation and suppression relative to his teammates. His usage wasn’t as demanding as years past, with Alex Carrier’s pair taking on the toughest defensive burdens.
And he had the elite boost of Roman Josi in his pair. But he thrived in that role, earning 61 percent of the expected goals share in 439 regular-season minutes with Josi, with even better results to show for it. That continued to show in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Why would Nashville trade that?
Despite this year’s impressive turnaround and playoff run, Predators management has its eye on the big picture. That means making tough decisions, like moving on from a 35-year-old while his value is this high in return for future assets.
It also opens up roster space for young players to become lineup mainstays around the veterans still in Nashville. The 2025 second-round pick has the most intrigue because if Tampa Bay can’t keep its championship window open, that pick is going to have more value.
Lightning’s offseason priorities
Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois said their top priority in the offseason was boosting their top-four, and Nashville GM Barry Trotz called him last week about potentially trading McDonagh back. “We never wanted to trade Ryan to start with,” BriseBois said.
The idea is for Tampa’s top-four to now be Hedman, Cernak, McDonagh and Sergachev, with BriseBois noting the Russian defenseman moving to the right side is a “very distinct possibility.”
“For most of the night, we have high-end defensemen on the ice wearing the right jersey,’ BriseBois said. “Having Ryan on our team is going to make the other players better. His presence, his leadership, his demeanor. Those things are hard to quantify. Players I’ve been able to connect with, they’re all really pumped to have Ryan back.”
A top question is what the McDonagh signing does for the Lightning’s ability to re-sign Stamkos. BriseBois indicated they are still able to get something done with Stamkos even after the McDonagh move. Talks are ongoing with Stamkos, who is an unrestricted free agent on July 1.
“I don’t think anything has changed,” BriseBois said. “Steven was upfront saying he wants to stay. That’s his strong preference. I mentioned that’s our strong preference as well. Now we’re still working on how do we make it happen to make it (work) for both sides.”
