Toronto Maple Leafs superstar centre Auston Matthews has missed the last two games due to a reaggravation of the undisclosed injury that has been plaguing him since training camp and kept him out of nine matches as recently as last month. He had only appeared in 11 games before going down again with the same injury, compiling six goals and six assists in that timeframe. Of course, this means that the Maple Leafs have had to alter their game plan for the 11 games (so far) that they have had to play while down their captain. Considering the holiday break, he’ll hopefully be able to get some recovery time and appear in their next game on Dec. 27 — the team is allegedly not worried about a long-term absence. Until that happens, though, it’s important to analyze their performance with and without him.
5v5 Numbers Tell Predictable Story
The vast majority of any hockey game is played at 5v5, and, unsurprisingly, when Matthews is absent from the Maple Leafs’ bench, the team struggles impact-wise, despite the 7-4-0 record.
Offensive Numbers Unsurprisingly Significantly Worse
The bulk of Toronto’s struggles without Matthews come from an offensive standpoint, where they struggle significantly to produce much of anything. In games where the franchise centre is in attendance, the Maple Leafs have generated 50.45 expected goals (xG) in total in 1,132:00 of 5v5 hockey. When Matthews is out of the lineup, they have generated just 17.95 xG in 535:22. On a per-60-minute basis, this translates to an expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) of 2.67 with Matthews in the lineup and 2.01 without. When extrapolated to the full-season rankings across the league, those would place them at seventh and 32nd, respectively, meaning that they have a league-worst offence in terms of xG generation when they play without him.
This makes sense, too, considering the difference in offensive output when he’s on the ice versus not, even when he is healthy. With Matthews on the ice this season, the Maple Leafs are generating 3.40 xGF/60, which is 36% better than league average, according to Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz. When taking into account all 35 games this season, without Matthews on the ice, they are generating just 2.23 xGF/60. Looking a bit further into this than its surface-level appearance, this also tells me that the Maple Leafs are generating more offence without Matthews on the ice in games that he appears in than games that he is absent from. If they’re generating just 2.01 xGF/60 without him in the lineup at all, but 2.23 xGF/60 across the season when Matthews is simply not on the ice, this shows that the team finds more offensive momentum from other spots of the lineup even when his presence lies on the bench.
Related: What’s Different About the Maple Leafs This Season?
This makes sense, as it cannot be understated that having inarguably the league’s most prolific goal scorer in the lineup at all must bolster confidence throughout all four lines. Not only that, but in his absence the lines must be shaken up, with players that normally would not be in the nightly lineup getting granted opportunities because of a missing forward. Unsurprisingly, this directly results in worsened offensive output. This also shows in the goal outputs — they’ve scored just 13 5v5 goals in the 11 games that Matthews has missed, as compared to 56 in the 24 he’s played. It’s a night and day difference.
Defensive Game Carried Toronto in Matthews’ First Absence
During Matthews’ first injury absence in November — one in which he missed nine games — the Maple Leafs impressively went 7-2-0, seemingly crushing beliefs that they would be unable to generate standings points without him in the lineup. In that time, though, they scored just nine 5v5 goals and generated a measly 1.98 xGF/60. Naturally, then, the defence must have been to blame for their fall upwards.
In particular, Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe carried the team on their backs during this stretch, both posting top-six performances in terms of allowing xG against. Goaltending was also superb, with the (healthy) tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz sporting save percentages (SV%) of .942 and .924, goals-against averages (GAA) of 1.48 and 2.24, and goals saved above expected of plus-3.28 and plus-0.2, respectively. These have not been the stories of the most recent Matthews absence, with the team having allowed the fourth-most xG against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and having given up the most goals against in the past two games.
Because of this inconsistency between the two absences, it’s admittedly difficult to gauge whether or not the team is worse defensively without Matthews in the lineup. Whereas the offensive impact and on-ice results in that regard were consistent and extreme, the up-and-down performance defensively in the two different Matthews injury leaves are inconclusive in that it’s near-impossible to determine if there has been a legitimate impact or not.
Matthews’ Absence Hits Hardest at 5v5
Without their star centre in the lineup, just about all of the negative impact comes at even-strength hockey. Their power-play and penalty-kill impacts remain practically unchanged — if anything, their power play is better sans-Matthews, generating 10.69 xGF/60 as compared to 7.88 xGF/60 when he is playing. A relatively small sample size is important to note there, with the team having played just over 51 minutes of power-play time in the 11 games Matthews has missed, but the point is that special teams are not where his practicality lies. As previously noted, the vast majority of any hockey game is played at 5v5 strength, so that’s the important metric when gauging a player’s impact on the team.
Matthews’ Health is Paramount
It’s easy to take a look at these statistics and say that it’s imperative for Matthews to return to action quickly and right the ship, however, that may not be the most strategic move if he plays with even an iota of injury left in his body. The Maple Leafs are in no danger of losing out on a playoff position, being that they hold the second-highest point percentage in the Atlantic Division and fifth-highest in the East. If Matthews needs to miss a few more games after the holiday break to fully recoup his health, then so be it. If he has to miss 10 or 15 more games, so be it. It’s much more important that he is fully healthy — which he last was last season, in which he scored nearly 70 goals — down the stretch and into the playoffs than come back too early and risk yet another re-aggravation.
