Maple Leafs hoping that Dakota Joshua’s 2023-24 season isn’t the outlier

Way back in 2014 in the final draft of the Dave Nonis era, the Maple Leafs selected Dakota Joshua in fifth round. He’d go on to have a somewhat unremarkable college career at Ohio State University, leading to Kyle Dubas feeling comfortable in sending him to St. Louis for future considerations. Joshua would establish himself as a solid depth option in their organization before signing with the Vancouver Canucks, putting up with an 11-goal followed by an 18-goal season. That’s what brought about the $3.25M AAV contract he now enjoys. His follow up seven-goal season is what brought about the reason the Canucks are excited to move on from a 6-foot-3 power forward type player.

The deal signals a couple of things here. The first is that Brad Treliving definitely has a type of player he wants more of in the Leafs lineup. Secondly, with the number of forwards presently on the Leafs roster, there is no way that Toronto is completely done. That’s analysis for another day though, this is about the type of player that Dakota Joshua definitely is and the hope that he can be the 2023-24 best version of himself again over the remaining three years he’s under contract.

At 29 years old, Dakota Joshua has established one thing consistently throughout his career and that is he hits a lot. His 193 hits last season with the Canucks was the lowest total of his time in Vancouver, and puts him right up with Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz, and Scott Laughton amongst the heaviest hitting forwards on the current Leafs roster.

As much as the 2023-24 season in Vancouver created a lot of excitement around Joshua, there is a pretty big underlying factor to why repeating it will be difficult. There aren’t too many players that are going to sustain a 21.4% shooting percentage and when you look at the combination of his ice time and shooting percentages in other seasons, Joshua projects to be a safer bet to put up around ten goals a season.

Of course, the 2024-25 step backward isn’t entirely shooting percentage and PDO driven. Dakota Joshua went through a lot last summer with a diagnosis and treatment of testicular cancer. Any condemnation of Joshua’s 2024-25 outputs should come with the acknowledgement he had other priorities.

Dakota Joshua isn’t someone who is going to drive plays. He’s not carrying the puck nor moving it particularly effectively, as such his 5v5 numbers are heavily based in how he was deployed and with who. The PDO pendulum swings widely with Joshua, and you can see the good and bad year impacts. Without a true neutral showing up, Joshua seems like the ultimate mystery box and the test will be about finding the right linemates for him.

For at least half the season, Joshua was playing with Conor Garland and Pius Suter as his most frequent linemates, but he also saw a fair bit of time with fellow producer of truculence, Kiefer Sherwood. Dakota would spend far more time with the numerous depth and sheltered options of the Canucks third and fourth lines, including 114 minutes with Teddy Blueger, who along with Conor Garland was a staple of the success that Joshua had in 2023-24.

Here’s more on that from Canucks Army:

Entering a contract year, Joshua was promoted to the third line, opposite of Conor Garland. The duo became two-thirds of what was known as one of the best third lines in hockey, centred by Teddy Blueger. The 6-foot-3 winger exploded offensively, scoring a career high in goals (18), assists (14), points (32), plus/minus (+19), shots on goal (84) and time on ice (14:23) in just 63 games. Joshua suffered a hand injury after a fight in mid-February against Chicago Blackhawks forward MacKenzie Entwistle that held him out for 19 games. During the Canucks’ 2023-2024 postseason run, Joshua continued his breakout campaign, scoring some timely goals. None bigger than his third period goal to give the Canucks their first lead in Game 1 of Round 1 against the Nashville Predators, just 12 seconds after they tied the game.

During Joshua’s time previously spent under Craig Berube in St. Louis, it’s not surprising at that time he was deployed in a fourth line capacity and spent most of his time on a line with former Leaf Kyle Clifford, and Klim Kostin.

Whether part of Joshua’s ability or possibly as a by-product of his linemates, Joshua’s lines have been somewhat trustworthy defensively, and as a result it seems likely that he’ll get the nod in a third line capacity rather than a fourth line capacity or viewed as potential role player on one of the top lines.

With Nicolas Roy having success in Vegas playing with a similarly physical linemate throughout his time there in Keegan Kolesar, it seems that there is some hope of a playing style fit that will benefit them both as well as match the style of hockey that Craig Berube wants from his bottom six.

Last season, Dakota Joshua didn’t see much in the way of special teams deployment and not a second of overtime. His 2023-24 season didn’t see much in the way of powerplay time but he did occasionally kill penalties and saw playing time in overtime as well. The same is largely true of the 2022-23 season. If Joshua is the right fit with the Leafs it is possible he’d get looks at a second powerplay unit net presence or spot duty on penalty kills.

There isn’t speed or a heavy shot to speak of with Joshua, but the size and physicality are a factor and what Brad Treliving wants.

Joshua is on the expensive side for what he produces but there is no question that he fits the style of player that Brad Treliving covets and comes with the experience of playing under Craig Berube. Also, between Joshua and Mermis, the Leafs now have a monopoly on the NHL’s Dakotas, and you can’t put a price on that.