Maple Leafs keys to victory over the Senators

The Battle of Ontario is here, and many hockey fans anticipate this to be an awesome series. It will be an interesting one to watch, as the teams have had phenomenal seasons.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won their first-ever Atlantic Division title, while the Ottawa Senators have made the playoffs for the first time since 2017. This series has no shortage of star power. Will Auston Matthews and William Nylander push the Maple Leafs to the second round? Or will Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle pull off an upset? Let’s take a look at some keys to victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Containing Brady Tkachuk

The most significant factor in the Toronto Maple Leafs winning is shutting down Brady Tkachuk. The captain of the Ottawa Senators has been a star for years in the NHL. He has finally gotten his chance to play for the Stanley Cup and will not waste this opportunity. Tkachuk left early in the final regular season game for the Senators, but will be ready to go in game one.

Brady Tkachuk will fit in very well in a playoff atmosphere. He is nearly always near the league’s top in hits and penalty minutes recorded. Points-wise, Tkachuk had a significantly down season compared to others. His point total of 74 in the 2023–24 season fell to 55 this year. However, he did play in 10 fewer games due to injury.

The Toronto Maple Leafs defensive corps must limit the number of scoring chances Tkachuk gets. The team will look to the defensive pairing of Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe to shut down the Ottawa Senators. Tanev’s defensive abilities and McCabe’s strength will be a good matchup against a power forward like Brady Tkachuk.

Shutting down the Ottawa Senators captain is one of the huge keys to victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Winning the goaltending matchup

Another key to victory is winning the goalie matchup. The Toronto Maple Leafs have had some excellent goaltending this season with Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators will be solely relying on Linus Ullmark. The question for the Maple Leafs is who gets to start in Game 1?

Anthony Stolarz has had the best season of his NHL career. He finished the regular season with a 21–8–3 record, putting up an impressive 0.926 save percentage with four shutouts. Not to mention that he also finished the season riding an eight-game winning streak with back-to-back shutouts. Joseph Woll was reliable throughout the entire season. The 26-year-old finished his season with a 27–14–1 record with a 0.909 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs will be up against Linus Ullmark, who has been the missing piece in the net for the Ottawa Senators. His record of 25–14–3 was enough to boost the Senators into the playoffs. Unfortunately, Ullmark has struggled mightily in the playoffs. In three straight playoff runs with the Boston Bruins, Ullmark recorded a sub-0.900 save percentage in each playoff run. Will the former Boston Bruin come back to haunt the Maple Leafs? Or will he continue to struggle?

Learning from previous matchups

Things did not go well for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season in the Battle of Ontario. They lost all three games against the Ottawa Senators and only scored three goals in the three games. The Maple Leafs must figure out a way to get by the Senators defensive corps and Linus Ullmark. In two games against the Toronto Maple Leafs this season, Linus Ullmark has made 48 saves on 50 shots.

Throughout these previous matchups, special teams have not been kind to the Maple Leafs. They went 0–6 on the power play throughout the season series as well as 4–6 on the penalty kill. These stats from the season series are significant because the Maple Leafs and Senators match up evenly. The Maple Leafs finished with the ninth-best power play of the regular season, while the Senators finished with the 11th-best. Looking into the penalty kill, the Maple Leafs ranked 17th in the NHL, while the Senators ranked 19th.

With the special teams of this matchup being so even, another potential key to victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs includes home ice advantage. The Maple Leafs had a respectable record of 27–13–1 on home ice. Fortunately for them, the Ottawa Senators struggled on the road this season, posting an 18–19–4 record. This series will begin in Toronto on Sunday night at 7pm EST.

Final thoughts

This is the most hyped up matchup of the first round, and rightfully so. These two teams are going to put on a show right from the beginning. Both teams have solid superstars, acceptable defence, and superior goaltending. Some trade deadline acquisitions could help determine the outcome of this series. Fabian Zetterlund will be making his NHL playoff debut, while Scott Laughton will bring 24 games of playoff experience to the Maple Leafs. Both of these players struggled to produce any offence with their new teams, so it will be interesting to see if either of them turns it around.

Which one of these keys to victory is the most important for the Toronto Maple Leafs?