It’s never too early to predict what the next NHL season will bring. Okay, the middle of July over two months before rosters are set seems a little bit early but it has the advantage of there being plenty of time to commit to the exercise. That’s why I did it.
Anyway, the process for projecting the output for the Maple Leafs next season is math based. If you aren’t interested in knowing how the sausage is made and just want to say the numbers are too high or too low, you can skip this part. If you want to criticize the simplicity of my calculations here is the process to get you fired up. The numbers are based on recent history with more recent results being weighted. The key things that are looked at are games played, time on ice, shots on goal, shooting percentage, and goals as a percentage of points. There is also a consideration for how the players have trended.
There are some adjustments for games played for some players who are new to the league and may need some injury consideration. The time on ice has either been rounded to the nearest might or in cases like McMann, Holmberg, etc. adjusted for anticipated higher utilization.
Now that I’ve qualified these a little, here are the predictions. I’ve made a few notes on each player as well in an attempt to hedge my bets.
Auston Matthews | C
GP: 77 | ATOI: 21:00 | G: 62 | A: 43 | P: 105
Predicting a drop off (even a slight one) for Auston Matthews is a bummer. It is a lot more fun to say that he will be pushing for 70 or beyond, but the model factors his 40-goal season between his two 60+ goal efforts and that is where history works against him.
I also think there will be a greater effort to play Matthews without Marner or Nylander more, and Craig Berube will rely on Auston’s two-way game as well. A 62-goal season would have been something of dreams before last season anyway.
William Nylander | RW
GP: 81 | ATOI: 19:00 | G: 40 | A: 54 | P: 94
Maybe William Nylander will just hit 40 goals every year from now until the end of time. It would be nice to say Nylander will hit 100 points but alas it’s not a contract year for a long time.
Mitch Marner | RW
GP: 75 | ATOI: 21:00 | G: 29 | A: 64 | P: 93
Speaking of contract years, it seems like Marner is going to deliver on one, in which case 93 points is a little low. It feels like he could stumble into Jonathan Huberdeau 115-point territory and then absolutely punish Brad Treliving and the Leafs for it. The bright side this time would be that at least Marner would be putting up those numbers on the team Treliving was the GM of.
It also seems possible that the pressure on Marner could push his numbers lower than we’ve seen from him. And this season is just a matter of clocking in until his contract is up.
Those are two competing narratives and a reason why trusting the numbers on Marner makes more sense than bringing the human factor into it.
John Tavares | C
GP: 79 | ATOI: 18:00 | G: 28 | A: 37 | P: 65
Will John Tavares’ numbers continue to decline or was last season a sign of where JT is at for the next stage of his career? Given the removal of Guy Boucher and John Tavares being a big time powerplay guy, it also seems reasonable that he could do more. The roster also seems point to Tavares continuing in the second line centre role. What comes after this year remains to be seen but maybe a contract year season is in the cards.
Morgan Rielly | D
GP: 70 | ATOI: 22:00 | G: 6 | A: 47 | P: 53
What can really be said about Rielly. He’s going to continue to be a big part of the Leafs break outs at 5v5 and then underwhelm on the powerplay because of the lack of a heavy point shot. A new look powerplay might utilize Rielly a bit better, but for now it’s best to just expect the consistent 45-55 point outputs from Morgan.
Max Domi | F
GP: 79 | ATOI: 16:00 | G: 13 | A: 39 | P: 52
A full year of playing alongside Auston Matthews might make this prediction look silly. On the other hand these are very much Michael Bunting type numbers and consistent with what Domi produces so maybe that’s the max for Max.
Matthew Knies | LW
GP: 80 | ATOI: 16:00 | G: 18 | A: 24 | P: 42
Sophomore slump or next step forward? Knies’ numbers will be heavily linked to who he plays with and the role he has under Berube.
Nick Robertson | LW
GP: 65 | ATOI: 14:00 | G: 19 | A: 17 | P: 36
Robertson’s another fun one to try and guess. If he’s healthy and he’s looked at as a way of replacing Bertuzzi’s offence, Robertson could have decent numbers. He also could be packing his bags for a new team as I write this.
Calle Jarnkrok | F
GP: 64 | ATOI: 15:00 | G: 14 | A: 15 | P: 29
Predicting the outputs for Jarnkrok is never too difficult. GIven that he’s usually in the 25-35 point range this seems like the sweet spot.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D
GP: 72 | ATOI: 20:00 | G: 6 | A: 22 | P: 28
It will be interesting to see if Ekman-Larsson is the PP2 quarterback this season and if the Leafs go that route, these points will probably slightly under what he could achieve. If OEL is primarily playing a third pairing role with bottom six forwards on the ice with him, these numbers might be a little high.
Bobby McMann | W
GP: 56 | ATOI: 15:00 | G: 18 | A: 10 | P: 28
The optimism of McMann keeping up his pace is alive and well with the 18 goal prediction. That number seems next to impossible if McMann will be taking up 4th line duties with Kampf and Reaves rather than playing in the top nine.
Jake McCabe | D
GP: 74 | ATOI: 21:00 | G: 6 | A: 20 | P: 26
We’re getting into the defence heavy part of the predictions and I’m honestly not sure how much any of this really matters. If McCabe sees a lot of time with top six forwards or gets some PP2 time based on the need for a heavier shot, he’ll put up points. If McCabe is the go to shutdown guy (after Tanev) the numbers might be lower.
Timothy Liljegren | D
GP: 70 | ATOI: 19:00 | G: 5 | A: 21 | P: 26
A lot of what has already been said about McCabe and Ekman-Larsson also applies to Liljegren. Maybe he’s a powerplay guy and he’ll get more points. Maybe he’ll be used in more offensive 5v5 situations and that will be nice for him. Or maybe he’ll be leaned on in a lot of bottom six or defensive situations and not be able to produce much.
Pontus Holmberg | C
GP: 70 | ATOI: 12:00 | G: 9 | A: 16 | P: 25
While Holmberg has received praise from Auston Matthews and others about his ability to create plays, Holmberg is likely playing in a 4C role for a lot of the season and while he’ll grow in that role and begin looking like an everyday player, it’s not going to score much.
David Kampf | C
GP: 79 | ATOI: 14:00 | G: 7 | A: 12 | P: 19
Somehow each of Kampf’s seven goals will be highlight reel and come at important moments, but they will still be few and far between, and with the exception of those memorable moments, Kampf will be lost in the offensive zone the rest of the time. Hopefully his penalty killing, and defensive zone responsibilities rebound this season.
Connor Dewar | F
GP: 72 | ATOI: 12:00 | G: 9 | A: 10 | P: 19
I’d still don’t feel like I know enough about Connor Dewar to know if this is reasonable, a stretch, or insulting. He does seem like a player who will get a good chance under Craig Berube and still has enough upside that he could move up the lineup if he finds the right fit.
Chris Tanev | D
GP: 72 | ATOI: 22:00 | G: 2 | A: 16 | P: 18
He’s not here for points but given who he’ll be on the ice with it seems reasonable that he’ll be one of the last three players to touch the puck before a goal at least 18 times.
Conor Timmins | D
GP: 25 | ATOI: 15:00 | G: 1 | A: 9 | P: 10
Timmins playing 25 games might be optimistic but he has been able to produce consistently. Ten points might honestly be low in the sheltered offensive situations he’ll play in.
Ryan Reaves | W
GP: 65 | ATOI: 8:00 | G: 4 | A: 5 | P: 9
Those four goals will be events. Whether or not you like Reaves in the lineup, try to enjoy these moments.
Jani Hakanpaa | D
GP: 42 | ATOI: 16:00 | G: 2 | A: 7 | P: 9
I guess if Hakanpaa plays at all. Between Hakanpaa and Timmins the Leafs might have one 6D. Any points from Jani are gravy.
Simon Benoit | D
GP: 75 | ATOI: 16:00 | G: 1 | A: 5 | P: 6
Last but not least, Simon Benoit. He’s still young enough that he could be coming into his own and surprise a lot of people. Not likely on the offensive production side of things though.
The two key names left off the list are Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten, the two players who don’t have any NHL history to pull from to make predictions. And while I think it is perfectly reasonable to expect one if not both of them to be on the team or possibly one of Alex Steeves, Jacob Quillan, or Nikita Grebenkin, there isn’t much certainty about which rookies will be around. I guess it’s just important to remember that even for an offensively gifted rookie, 30 points is around what you can expect from a non-Calder candidate.
Let me know who is too high or too low in the comments below.
