As part of my daily routine for The Hockey Writers, I dive into the latest insights and opinions from other writers who cover the Toronto Maple Leafs. While not every perspective resonates with me, I appreciate the wealth of knowledge and diverse viewpoints contributing to the team’s comprehensive coverage – regardless of what hockey site they write with. This morning, I came across an intriguing post by one of my colleagues at THW, Peter Baracchini, who has earned a reputation for his exceptional analysis of young prospects.
For those who don’t know Peter’s work, he’s one of the best at analyzing prospects. He seems to eat, breathe, and sleep them. He knows as much or more than anyone else I read about the young players who could make the NHL. He’s a trustworthy source of information on young players hitting the NHL.
Peter’s recent Maple Leafs article speculated on whether Matthew Knies could hit the 30-goal mark this season, a bold prediction I found particularly interesting. Given Knies’ impressive rookie season and the potential opportunities awaiting him, I wanted to build upon Peter’s analysis and explore why I also agree Knies might reach this milestone.
Baracchini Made Three Key Points in His Post
In his post, Peter noted Knies’ standout rookie season for the Maple Leafs and his ability to consistently improve and adapt well to the NHL’s fast pace. Finishing with 15 goals and 35 points, he ranked seventh among rookies in both categories. His 33 even-strength points were particularly notable, placing him third among rookies behind only Connor Bedard and Marco Rossi. With a potential top-line role alongside superstars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner (or William Nylander), Knies is well-positioned to surpass his previous performance.
Peter’s article made three key points. First, Knies consistently grew and had a strong rookie performance, laying a solid foundation for a more prominent role. His impressive, even-strength production and significant contributions throughout the season demonstrate his potential for further growth.
Second, Knies thrived when paired with Matthews and either Marner or Nylander. His presence on the top line contributed to high goal percentages and goals-per-60 stats, suggesting he could replicate this success and reach the 30-goal mark with a prominent role this season. Third, Knies seems poised for more significant opportunities. He has shown he can rise to the occasion in high-pressure situations. His offensive production will likely grow with increased minutes and potential power-play time. His size and net-front presence make him a strong candidate for scoring, especially if he channels the skills of players such as John Tavares.
Knies’ Chemistry with the Maple Leafs Stars
Peter’s focus on Knies’ performance alongside the other top-six players on the team supports the point. Whether he plays with Matthews and Marner or Matthews and Nylander doesn’t matter—his work with either partnership has been promising. Statistics from MoneyPuck reveal that when Knies played with Matthews and Marner, the line had a goals-for percentage of 65.7%. With Matthews and Nylander, the rate was still substantial at 54.5%. His effective net-front presence and ability to contribute significantly to these line combinations underscore his value.
Given Knies’ physical attributes — 6-foot-3, 217 pounds — and net-front skills, the 30-goal mark is within reach. That’s particularly true if he improves his finishing skills and takes advantage of power-play opportunities. The key factors will be consistent health, line chemistry, and effective coaching.
Focusing on coaching, there’s a strong possibility Knies could hit the 30-goal mark with the right coaching that would enhance his ability to leverage his size and net-front presence. Tavares, known for his courage and exceptional hand-eye coordination, routinely puts his body in harm’s way in front of the net. He uses his skills to score “garbage goals” and capitalize on rebounds there. Knies could benefit from learning Tavares’ techniques to maximize effectiveness in those challenging areas of the ice.
Could Knies Become the Next Great Maple Leafs Power Forward?
Knies has the potential to become a unique blend of two notable power forwards who recently wore the Maple Leafs jersey: Zach Hyman and Simmonds. Like Hyman, Knies possesses a work ethic and a physical edge that allows him to dominate along the boards and in the dirty areas of the ice. Hyman’s knack for creating space and contributing offensively and defensively set a high standard for power forwards in Toronto, and Knies has shown similar skills in his early career. Hyman’s career has taken off since joining the Edmonton Oilers. Might Knies reach those kinds of scoring heights?
At the same time, Knies could embody aspects of Wayne Simmonds’ game, particularly his ability to bring a physical presence and enforcer mentality. While Simmonds’ offensive impact during three seasons with the Maple Leafs was a limited as he was in the twilight of his NHL career, his role as a physical force and team leader was invaluable. Knies’ potential to combine Hyman’s gritty, space-creating skills with Simmonds’ rugged, tough-as-nails approach could make him a multi-skilled power forward for Toronto. He could grow to contribute at both ends of the ice and become a key player in their lineup.
Still, Things Have to Go Right for Knies to Hit 30 Goals
Reaching the 30-goal mark in an NHL season is a significant challenge, especially for a young player like Knies. Several factors make this milestone particularly elusive. First and foremost, health and consistency are crucial. Injuries or periods of poor performance can derail even the most promising seasons. Knies must stay healthy throughout the season and maintain a high level of play to reach his goal.
Second, his success is highly dependent on line chemistry and deployment. While Knies has shown strong connections with top players like Matthews and Marner, any shifts in line combinations or his role on the power play could impact his scoring opportunities. That depends on how new head coach Craig Berube deploys his players. Should Knies find himself on the team’s third line with other youngsters, he might not have the chance to reach high goal totals.
Defensive responsibilities also play a role. Balancing his offensive production with defensive tasks will be critical as Knies takes on more prominent duties. Furthermore, the team’s overall dynamics will affect his chances. That’s also true of the opposition. Although, in his second season, Knies will likely fly under the radar, if he gets hot, he could face adjustments from opponents who focus on neutralizing him as a scoring threat. His ability to adapt and continue finding opportunities will be critical in pursuing the 30-goal milestone.
The Bottom Line: Reaching 30 Goals Is Tough But Doable
While achieving the 30-goal milestone will be challenging, it would make for an exciting development. Knies’ potential is undeniable, and the Maple Leafs are fortunate to have him on their roster. Knies could significantly impact the team’s fortunes if everything falls into place and he is able to solidify his place as one of the team’s rising stars.
This could be a fun season for Knies fans. There’s a chance this youngster could be outstanding.
