Montreal Canadiens State Of The Rebuild – The Defensive Situation

As you can see, Xhekaj is the only defenceman who managed to finish the season above 50 percent in this very important statistical category. Some may argue he produced those numbers due to his usage, and they’d be right, to a certain extent. Xhekaj mostly played on the third pairing, though he did spend some time in the top four.

But he does not control where he plays, nor does he dictate his ice time. That’s up to head coach Martin St-Louis.  Xhekaj could, however, control his play when he was on the ice, and the numbers suggest he did a great job within that assignment.

We tend to want players to continuously move up the lineup, which has led to some criticism in Xhekaj’s case. Some have suggested he has limited value because he probably won’t end up playing in the top four, but that type of thinking is counterproductive in most industries, including hockey.

It’s called the Peter Principle. If every employee rises in the hierarchy through promotion they will eventually reach a level where they can no longer advance, which means they’ll be used in a position that is well above their talent level.

Xhekaj may not end up winning a Norris Trophy, and that’s fine. Expecting him to defy the odds continuously is a little too ambitious, especially when we consider he already defied the odds simply by making the NHL directly out of the OHL.

On the flip side, Jayden Struble’s numbers quickly cratered after a strong start to the season. That’s to be expected when we consider how little professional experience he had before making the jump to the NHL. That being said, unless there’s an opening in the lineup heading into training camp, more time in the AHL would do Struble some good. It would allow him to adapt to the lack of time and space in the NHL.

As per usual, Jordan Harris quietly had a very solid season despite a lack of consistency in his usage. Harris is the type of defenceman that doesn’t necessarily jump off the page when you watch him play. But his well-rounded skill set has produced very encouraging underlying numbers in his first two complete seasons in the NHL, and that’s worth exploring further. The same can be said about Johnathan Kovacevic and Justin Barron, although their numbers are a tier below Harris’.

Savard struggled, but again, he was playing above his station on most nights. There was one very interesting development in his case toward the end of the season, as his numbers skyrocketed the moment he played alongside Xhekaj. Savard brings more to the table than just his play on the ice, but it’s worth noting that he only produced above-average numbers once Xhekaj was added to his pairing, whereas Xhekaj maintained solid numbers regardless of his defensive partner.

While Matheson and Savard’s underlying numbers tanked once they were placed on the top pairing, Guhle’s numbers were much better, indicating that the young defenceman is slowly yet surely turning into a reliable top-four defenceman. Fans may push back on the idea that Guhle’s numbers paint the complete picture, but I would suggest the fact that he played on the top pairing and finished with better numbers than both veterans is an encouraging sign. In addition, Guhle was often used on his offside, which is a very difficult proposition for any defenceman, let alone a second-year player facing the opposing team’s best players any given night.

Montreal Canadiens Defencemen – Production

My friends in the data analysis industry will cringe when I bring up production from the blue line, but the situation in Montreal is a little different than most. St-Louis often discussed the importance of having his defencemen join the rush, stating that he wanted to see more production from the back end.

And that’s exactly what he received. Matheson set a career-high in points, with 11 goals and 51 assists in 82 games. Say what you will about his defensive play, but Matheson was the first Canadiens defenceman to finish the season above 60 points since P.K. Subban did it in 2014-15.

Ideally, you’d want Matheson to produce above-average underlying numbers, but when we consider that he’s playing on the top pairing of a team that finished among the bottom five in the NHL three years in a row, his possession numbers are easier to accept.

To put a fine point on Matheson’s value we simply need to take a look at the defencemen who outscored him this season. Matheson finished ninth in defenceman scoring, trailing some of the best defencemen in the NHL. Those defencemen also happen to be some of the highest-paid defencemen in the league.

Players like Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, and Adam Fox

It’s simply not realistic to expect Matheson to be dominant at both ends of the rink when he carries the 62nd-highest salary cap hit among all NHL defencemen ($4.875 million).

In addition to Matheson’s impressive production, Guhle, Kovacevic, and Barron also set career highs in goals.

Potential Vs. Reality – Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

While the average age on the blueline skews quite young, we also have to accept that the current group of defencemen has not yet reached the point where we could suggest the Montreal Canadiens have one of the best bluelines in the NHL.

The defensive group is overflowing with potential, and adding a player such as Lane Hutson to the mix should improve the team’s underlying numbers, but for now, the Canadiens are among the worst teams in the league when it comes to mitigating scoring chances.

If this were based purely on potential, I’d grade the Canadiens with a seven or eight on 10, but seeing as we’re discussing the play of the defencemen this season, there’s no way to suggest they deserve a passing grade without delving into intellectual dishonesty.

Simply put, the current group has the potential, but the results need to catch up to the process.