With all attention geared toward picking an edge rusher in the first round of April’s NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons need to address the situation at safety. While Jessie Bates continues to excel within the confines of any defense, the other safety spot desperately needs an upgrade/renovation.
Justin Simmons, an unrestricted free agent, turns 32 in November. While productive from an interception front, Simmons's tardiness to the play continuously hurt the defense. Additionally, missing 19.8% of his tackles, the worst season of his career according to Pro Football Focus, needs addressing.
If the Falcons don't like the pass rushers available to them at No. 15, they could go after former Georgia Bulldogs star Malaki Starks, but there is value to be had in the second round. Mel Kiper had Starks going to the Dolphins at No. 13 in his first mock draft of the year.
Why the Second Round?
As mentioned, finding pass rush help in the first round supersedes any other positional need. The team needs talent and depth at that spot. Next, recent history lends itself to the Falcons sensibly picking an impact safety in the second round.
Third, the Falcons don’t have a third-round pick, having sent it to the New England Patriots in the Matt Judon trade during the preseason.
The Falcons tried to address the safety position in the second round in 2021 when they selected Richie Grant with the No. 40 overall pick. A premium selection for a non-premium position, Grant struggled mightily with the Falcons. The Falcons originally held the No. 35 overall pick, but traded down with the Denver Broncos.
Jevon Holland went to the Dolphins with the No. 36 pick. Ouch. Atlanta got the Broncos' fourth-round pick in the deal and selected center Drew Dalman. Ironically, Dalman has been far more productive than Grant and running back Javonte Williams who the Broncos took at 35.
Taylor Rapp, since his drafting in 2019 (61st overall), won a Super Bowl ring with Raheem Morris and the LA Rams as a starter, picking off 12 passes since his drafting.
In 2020, Roswell High School alum Xavier McKinney and Kyle Dugger went back-to-back at No. 36 and No. 37 respectively. McKinney landed with the Giants and Dugger went to the Patriots.
McKinney was first-team All-Pro this season with eight interceptions. Dugger, a versatile chess piece, starting 65 of 74 career games, pulling down nine interceptions and two pick-sixes.
A Day 2 pick on a non-premium position - safety, running back, tight end, linebacker, and interior offensive line, is a premium pick.
New Scheme
Jeff Ulbrich typically uses a four-man front with a nickel defense behind, depending on extra defensive backs in a 4-2-5. He wants an aggressive defense of playmakers and nothing passive or anything resembling "bend but don't break."
Ulbrich’s defense thrived versus the pass. They were fourth in the NFL giving up just 3,275 passing yards. However, they were just 24th with 17 forced turnovers. In a division that wants to take the top off the defense, forcing turnovers and making plays on the ball matters.
Options
Notre Dame's Xavier Watts and Texas' Andrew Mukuba will give the Falcons possible options that can play the pass, but will also make the play. Watts thrives in coverage with 13 interceptions the last two seasons. He'll also smack the ball carrier (two forced fumbles).
Mukuba, on the other hand, brings high-level explosion and the ability to break on the ball underneath. Also, he can fare well away from the line of scrimmage. He makes solid plays on the ball and provides protection of his cornerbacks.
Bottom Line
The Atlanta Falcons can use the 2024 NFL Draft to bolster their secondary. While cornerbacks garner most of the attention, remember who makes sure that those spots enjoy success. For the low price of a second-rounder, the team can dramatically improve their defense if they get the right running mate for Jessie Bates.
