Rasmus Dahlin is the Buffalo Sabres' best player. It doesn't matter whether you use basic statistics, analytics or the old-school eye test, it's clear the 25-year-old Swede is often forced to carry the team on his shoulders, and he's emerged as one of the NHL's best defensemen in the process.
PAVEL Analytics is the latest outlet to highlight Dahlin's elite talent, giving the three-time All-Star a 96 overall rating in its 2025-26 season preview. On the opposite end of the spectrum is fellow defender Conor Timmins, whose 11 PAVEL rating is the worst on Buffalo's projected roster.
Although neither of those placements are terribly surprising, there are a few eye-opening ratings among the Sabres' 18 skaters listed in the newly released early season outlook. The PAVEL rankings are based on a three-year weighted average.
Sabres' highest-rated players
1. Rasmus Dahlin (96)
2. Tage Thompson (90)
3. Michael Kesselring (81)
T-4. Alex Tuch (80)
T-4. Josh Doan (80)
Buffalo's decision to trade goal-scoring sensation JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth looks a little more favorable in this context. It'll ease the pain of losing a player who's scored 55 goals over the past two seasons if Kesselring and Doan end up being two of the Sabres' top five players.
Kesselring is particularly important. Buffalo has failed miserably in its quest to find a stable partner for Owen Power since selecting the University of Michigan with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, and its caused the defenseman's development to stagnate.
On paper, a top-four defense quartet of Dahlin, Power, Kesselring and Bowen Byram should be one of the league's highest-upside groups. That's a far cry from recent years when the Sabres defensive woes were often the main reason for their continued playoff absence.
Thompson and Tuch being the last two players inside the top five is expected. Thompson has established himself as one of the NHL's most lethal goal scorers, while Tuch faces an important campaign as he enters the final season of his seven-year contract.
Sabres' lowest-rated players
18. Conor Timmins (11)
17. Beck Malenstyn (13)
16. Josh Norris (15)
T-15. Jordan Greenway (16)
T-15. Mattias Samuelsson (16)
Norris' presence on this list obviously sticks out like a sore thumb. In March, the Sabres traded center Dylan Cozens, defenseman Dennis Gilbert and a 2026 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Norris and blueliner Jacob Bernard-Docker.
Buffalo proceeded to non-tender JBD, who signed with the Detroit Red Wings, leaving Norris as the team's only remaining piece from that blockbuster trade. He'll likely be given a chance to center the top line, but PAVEL isn't too optimistic about his chances of success in that crucial role.
Meanwhile, these rankings are another piece of evidence suggesting the Sabres made an unforced error by giving Greenway a two-year, $8 million contract extension in March. Giving an injury-prone, fourth-line, below-replacement-level player $4 million a season never made sense.
Although Samuelsson and Timmins are both on this list, it wouldn't be surprising if they work well together in a sheltered third-pair role and improve their ratings for next season.
Malenstyn will likely be scratched for Peyton Krebs if there are no injuries to open the season, but neither one is a game-changer for Buffalo.
Full Buffalo preview from PAVEL Analytics
Sabres fans seeking some optimism can look at PAVEL Analytics' projected ceiling for Buffalo's 2025-26 campaign, which is fourth in the highly competitive Atlantic Division. Last season, the Senators claimed that spot with 97 points and earned a playoff berth.
Alas, the projected floor for the Sabres is last place in the Atlantic, which is a spot they've already held five times since the division was created in 2013-14.
What's clear is if Buffalo is going to end its 14-year playoff drought, it desperately needs players to exceed expectations. Norris, Power, Zach Benson and Jack Quinn headline the players who have the potential to take their games to another level.
In the bigger picture, the bottom line remains much the same as its been since Kevyn Adams took over as general manager in 2020: The Sabres missed the playoffs by 12 points last season and treated the offseason like they were only a minor tweak or two from Stanley Cup contention.
Until Buffalo gets more aggressive in its attempts to upgrade the roster and starts using all of its available salary-cap space, it's hard to take the organization seriously because other teams are using every loophole available to build the best team possible.
-1753776541-q80.webp "Struggling Falcons veteran being pushed onto chopping block already in camp")
