Matvei Michkov is going to touch down in North America imminently, locking in stone his place on the Philadelphia Flyers for the 2024-25 season after signing the three-year, entry-level contract negotiated by agent J.P. Barry on July 1.
But, now that “Michkov Mania”, as some have called it, is getting started, how can we temper our expectations for the 19-year-old Russian sensation in a way that isn’t harmful to Michkov and his Flyers teammates?
For starters, it’s a little unfair that Michkov, playing in North America regularly for the very first time, is favored to win the Calder Trophy. FanDuel has Michkov’s odds set at +350, which is an implied probability of roughly 22%.
That puts the Flyers talisman ahead of the likes of Macklin Celebrini (+400), Logan Stankoven (+400), Cutter Gauthier (+500), Will Smith (+500), and Lane Hutson (+700).
While I’m more skeptical of Stankoven, Smith, and Hutson, Celebrini and Gauthier have easier paths to winning the Calder in the sense that a decent statistical season and a slight improvement on their teams’ dire 2023-24 campaigns would probably give them the strongest cases.
The Flyers, on the other hand, are probably regression candidates despite a 38-33-11 record that saw them fall short of the playoffs by only four points or two wins. Injury luck was also on the Flyers’ side last year, as 13 different skaters appeared in 70 or more games.
Expanding on that further, keep in mind that players like Morgan Frost, Ryan Poehling, Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, Egor Zamula, Nicolas Deslauriers, Bobby Brink, and Marc Staal would have appeared in many more games had they not been healthy scratches at various times in the year.
After Carter Hart’s sudden departure, Sam Ersson faltered a bit under the pressure of being the starter, and there’s no guarantee Ivan Fedotov can help in that aspect after some inauspicious performances of his own.
That said, the Flyers will likely improve offensively with Michkov but regress defensively, as their play style starts to take a greater toll on healthy bodies.
Ideally, Couturier, Frost, and Tyson Foerster all become or return to being 50-point players, and Michkov exceeding anything more than that can be considered a bonus as well. It also wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that Brink, Noah Cates, and Scott Laughton chip in 40 points or so. And from the blueline, Cam York certainly has the talent to add more offense, but will John Tortorella cut him loose?
Conversely, if Jamie Drysdale can’t prove that he is a top-four defender at the NHL and can stay healthy while doing so, a lot changes for the Flyers. That means more responsibility for Rasmus Ristolainen, who has historically had injury woes of his own, and potentially Ronnie Attard and Erik Johnson. Suffice to say, that would be a dramatic step in the wrong direction.
Michkov Comparison, Deep Dive
The Flyers have been marketing Michkov as their superstar and savior, and rightfully so. Now just isn’t the time for that, considering Michkov will have been living in or near Philadelphia for less than three months by the time opening night rolls around on the 2024-25 regular season.
Because of his size, strengths, weaknesses, and playstyle, Michkov has often compared to Tampa Bay Lightning world-beater Nikita Kucherov. Just over a decade ago, in the 2013-14 season, Kucherov made his NHL debut as a rookie, scoring only nine goals, nine assists, and 18 points in 52 games.
Sure, expectations were lower for Kucherov as a former second-round pick in 2011, but he was playing on a good Lightning team that already had head coach Jon Cooper, Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Callahan, and Ben Bishop. Kucherov had a much better and more experienced supporting cast than what Michkov is walking into in Philadelphia.
At the same time, and perhaps for that same reason, Kucherov averaged only 13:07 in his rookie season and therefore was not on the ice with the Lightning’s top dogs all the time.
The next season, Kucherov managed to rip off 29 goals, 36 assists, and 65 points to the tune of only 14:57 a night, placing him third in team scoring behind only Stamkos and Johnson. By the end of the 2015-16 season, Kucherov had established himself as a first-line player averaging north of 18 minutes a game.
If Tortorella and the Flyers deploy Michkov similarly, 50 points would be a nice soft spot between Kucherov’s rookie and sophomore season totals of 18 and 65 points.
Even with his record-breaking scoring prowess, don’t expect Michkov to drop 140 points like Kucherov did in 2023-24 as the Flyers go guns blazing into the Stanley Cup playoffs. The most important thing is that Michkov is comfortable, understands what is being asked of him, and learns the NHL game the right way.
