‘Something Is Clearly Off’ for New York Yankees Slugger but Regression Should Come

Apr 12, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger (35) hits an RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium. Tom Horak-Imagn Images

Through their first 19 games of the 2025 MLB regular season, the New York Yankees have arguably the most prolific offense in baseball.

They are averaging an MLB-high 5.95 runs per game entering play on Thursday, smash the ball with regularity. Currently, they tied for the league lead with 34 home runs and their slash line of .260/.345/.481 are all in the top four of their respective categories.

An OPS+ of 137 is No. 1 in the MLB and their 305 total bases are second only to the Chicago Cubs, who have 318 and have played two more games.

While the offense is rolling right along, not everyone in the Yankees’ lineup has gotten going yet this season.

One of the players who has struggled out of the gate is center fielder, Cody Bellinger.

Acquired from the Cubs in an offseason deal that was essentially a salary dump for the franchise; all it cost New York was relief pitcher Cody Poteet and to take on a majority of the money owed to him.

Bellinger has not found a groove yet with New York, recording a .186/.239/.288 slash line with one home run, one triple, one double and 10 RBI with two stolen bases. He may not be hitting the ball often, but when he does, he is making it count.

One of the issues thus far for the former National League MVP has been strikeouts.

He has struck out 18 times in only 67 plte appearacnes, resulting in a very high 29.3% strikeout rate, per Owen Poindexter of The Athletic (subscription required). 

That is well above the 21.2% rate he has recorded in his career and a massive increase over what he recorded last season, which was 15.6%.

When coupled with a decrease in contact rate, it is easy to see why his numbers are so low in the early going.

But, there are reasons for optimism. His new home field and some expected positive regression to the mean should start leading to improved statistics.

“As for Cody Bellinger, his contact rate is way down, but everything else looks normal enough. The .229 BABIP will come up, and at some point, he’ll discover the short right porch at Yankee Stadium. Something is clearly off with him, but I’d still put him as a modest buy-low,” Poindexter wrote.

He is still hitting the ball very hard with an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph, which would be his highest single-season mark since 2019; the last time he made an All-Star team and when he won the MVP award.

His hard-hit rate of 51.2% would also be a career high, as this could be a case of bad luck that Bellinger is dealing with in the early going.

He isn’t putting the ball on the ground with a 27.3% ground ball rate, which hints that a turnaround and breakout is right around the corner.