The Vancouver Canucks undoubtedly know Jeff Skinner is available. The Buffalo Sabres may not have said anything publicly, but few players hear “buyout” and think they’re sticking around. The Vancouver Canucks decided on their direction when they re-signed J.T. Miller and moved out Bo Horvat. There is a limited amount of time to make a serious push for the Stanley Cup, and they know it. Let’s check out whether or not Jeff Skinner may be a fit with this Canucks group.
Finding a Fit For Canucks and Skinner
Extending Filip Hronek to a decent, eight-year deal completed the most important transaction of their offseason. That doesn’t complete the defence, but with Tyler Myers expected to sign a team-friendly deal, it’s close. Quinn Hughes and Hronek are the top pair, Myers anchors the third, and Carson Soucy is likely in the second. There is still a chance that Nikita Zadorov will reach a deal with Vancouver. But it’s easy to picture an offer from other teams well beyond what he’s worth. And the Canucks want to raise the ceiling of the team this year. That’s going to be expensive.
Elias Lindholm is all but out the door, looking for either more money or a better fit than available in Vancouver. Dakota Joshua, a late bloomer, has his best chance to make his money on this deal. The team has cap space, but isn’t likely to take on the risk of Joshua’s possible regression. But does that make the Canucks and Skinner a match?
Skinner Isn’t a Replacement
There is a profound difference between the game Lindholm and Joshua play and what Skinner provides a team. If money was no object, coach Rick Tocchet would keep both of Vancouver’s unrestricted free agents. If that is, they wanted to stay. Not guaranteed, as they would likely take middle-six roles. Lindholm plays a high-pursuit, heavy-forecheck game. He has skill, certainly, but he is at his best when he’s driving other skilled players up the wall. Or into the boards. The same is true of Joshua, though his offence is just starting to get tapped, making his future less predictable.
Vancouver’s success this season meant the individuals on the team also did very well. Players they want to use in their bottom six have a chance to strike it rich and they’d be fools not to take advantage. Which is part of the game that Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford understand very well. So why would the Canucks want Jeff Skinner?
At first glance, he certainly doesn’t seem like much of a fit. He doesn’t play much in the corners and don’t expect him to force opponents off the puck with big hits. His boxcar stats veer wildly through his career, with 20-40 point swings between seasons. He appears to be not only one-dimensional, but that dimension is unreliable.
More Than One Way to Skinner a Canuck
A recurring theme in the latter half of the season and into the playoffs was finding a fit for Elias Pettersson. In 13 playoff games, his most frequent linemates were Nils Höglander and Ilya Mikheyev. Höglander had two points in 11 games; Mikheyev had zero. Not how you treat your All-Star centre. The Canucks have players who will go through walls for the team, which is great. But they also need to put the puck in the net if they want more than moral victories. Skinner has the speed Mikheyev is getting back to, but with 357 career goals to go with it.
Vancouver’s left side on forward is also quite weak, led by Höglander and Mikheyev, though Pius Suter spent time there as well. Starting the year with Suter as a third-line centre who can be moved up in emergencies is putting him in his best role.
Putting Skinner on the top line with Pettersson puts two high-IQ players in place to take advantage of each other. It could work as well as the team’s Hughes-Hronek pairing. If Mikheyev regains his confidence in scoring, that would be a dangerous and comically fast line. And one thing must be noted about Jeff Skinner: his numbers get even better when you look under the hood. In every one of his 14 NHL seasons, Skinner’s Corsi has not only been above 50% but better than his teammates. That was true with the Carolina Hurricanes and the Sabres. But, as with any other deal in sports, there is some risk. Fortunately, Vancouver can mitigate that.
Make it Make Sense!
If the Sabres carry through with their rumoured plan to buy Skinner out, they will save a lot of money. About $7.3 million to be paid out over six seasons. Or they can retain 50% of his salary in a trade, saving $13.5 million over three seasons. The cap hit will be higher than a buyout in season one but gone after season three.
That leaves Vancouver, or any other team that does this deal, paying $4.5 million for a mercurial but talented 32-year-old. That age is as likely the reason Buffalo might move on from Skinner as anything else. The Sabres have a load of young talent on the wing, and a $9 million man taking their space isn’t in their best interest.
Three years may be longer than most teams want for something of a wild card, but it fits Vancouver’s timeline perfectly. It matches the length of Hughes’ current deal, pairs Miller’s age, and rides through Pettersson’s strongest period. Skinner will need to waive his full no-move clause to come to Vancouver, but he should see the appeal. Joining a team that wants to use him with their best player should be preferable to one that wants him out of the way. And if he works hard enough, he’ll see the playoffs.
It’s true, the last time Jeff Skinner was in the playoffs was when he played for Kitchener in the OHL. Vancouver won’t be the exact same team that made the second round this year, but they’ll be close. And who doesn’t want to see what will happen when he finally makes it?
