Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt finished as runner-up for the NFL MVP back in 2014. Not only did it mark the best finish for the three-time Defensive Player of the Year, but it also was the only top-three marking for a play
er in franchise history.
A decade later, Houston has its best chance of seeing another take home the league’s highest individual honor.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has oddsmakers juiced on his chance to build upon his historic rookie season into MVP status. DraftKings Sportsbook listed Stroud tied with Bills quarterback Josh Allen for the second-lowest odds at +850.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes comes in as the favorite at +450.
Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year following a season in which he threw 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns, leading the Texans to an AFC South championship and a playoff victory.
An MVP in Stroud’s second season would place him in elite company, joining two Hall of Famers in Dan Marino (1984) and Kurt Warner (1999) and the previous two winners in Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019).
Jackson and Mahomes are also two of three active players with multiple MVPs, along with New York Jets star Aaron Rodgers, which could catapult Stroud’s trajectory to new heights entering a pivotal third season.
Historically, the MVP comes from one of the top teams. The last seven winners either played for the franchise with the best record in the league or the top record in the conference.
DraftKings set Houston’s win total at 9.5, tied with the New York Jets for sixth-highest in the AFC. The Texans also have the seventh-toughest schedule, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Houston countered the gauntlet of a schedule by adding to Stroud’s support in separate offseason trades, acquiring running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
A four-time Pro Bowler, Diggs joins 2023 breakout Nico Collins and standout rookie Tank Dell. The latter saw his season cut short by a season-ending leg injury in Week 13. Houston’s duo combined for 127 receptions and 2,006 yards.
Before Dell’s injury, Stroud was on fire, throwing for 1,466 yards and 10 touchdowns over four games. That run pushed Stroud’s name into MVP talks, but a concussion against the Jets sidelined him for two weeks and derailed the buzz.
In a 17-game projection, Stroud was on pace to throw for 6,230 yards and 42 touchdowns. He finished ninth in MVP voting.
Pro Football Focus sees Stroud’s ceiling as an All-Pro in Year 2 under Bobby Slowik’s playbook. The Pro Football Writers Association loves storylines.
Stroud’s captured the hearts of many throughout his first year in the NFL. And in the fact that Houston is one of six franchises without an NFL MVP, it’s a recipe for dominance come 2024.
