Why Sabres won't need another rebuild if they can't save their season

   

An 18-game losing streak in 2021 forced the Sabres to begin another rebuild with another coach and a group of players who general manager Kevyn Adams decided would be the pillars of his team.

Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen were traded. Ralph Krueger was fired. Don Granato was retained as coach. There wasn’t a plan to try to win anytime soon. The Sabres were going to let young players learn from mistakes, and the roster was backfilled with veteran journeymen such as Vinnie Hinostroza.

Nearly four years later, the Sabres’ loyal and disgruntled fan base is concerned that it may be forced to watch another attempt at building a playoff team.

The Sabres’ Dennis Gilbert, left, and Jordan Greenway react after the Red Wings scored the tying goal in the third period on Dec. 9.

Joed Viera, Buffalo News

The Sabres’ 13-game winless streak ended Monday night with a 7-1 win over the New York Islanders in UBS Arena. Six different players scored at least one goal. It was one of Buffalo’s best performances of the season and it came on the eve of the NHL’s brief holiday break, which ends Friday when the club hosts the Chicago Blackhawks in KeyBank Center.

There’s still an opportunity to salvage the season, but the Sabres are going to need to string together a few long win streaks and avoid the type of skid that has them at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

There is no telling whether owner Terry Pegula will take action and what that may look like if the Sabres don’t turn their season around. Starting over again shouldn’t be the next step if Lindy Ruff and his players can’t overcome their 12-19-4 record through 35 games. Even if Pegula continues with the current plan, there is a path for the Sabres to avoid a painful rebuild. Here’s how he can do it without tearing it down and starting anew:

Experience

If Pegula does not want to change general managers, then the owner needs to bring in someone with experience to work alongside Kevyn Adams.

Jason Karmanos, the Sabres’ associate general manager, has three Stanley Cup rings from his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes, and runs Buffalo’s American Hockey League affiliate, the Rochester Americans. The Amerks are a strength of the organization and reached the Eastern Conference finals in 2023. Their coaches deserve credit for the development of JJ Peterka, Jiri Kulich, Jack Quinn and Mattias Samuelsson.

Karmanos also recruited Sam Ventura from the Penguins to lead the Sabres’ analytics department. Ventura, VP of Hockey Research and Strategy, hired multiple talented analysts, and the data they collect influences the team’s decisions on the draft floor, free agency and trade acquisitions.

Karmanos isn’t around the NHL team often, though, and he has never been a general manager in the league. The Sabres need to bring in someone from the outside who can help them navigate the challenging negotiations ahead. They had multiple trades blocked by no-trade clauses in the summer. Recruiting free agents won’t be easier if they can’t overcome the winless streak. The person also could provide expertise and wisdom in every other area of hockey operations.

The Minnesota Wild allowed their general manager, Bill Guerin, to hire longtime executive Ray Shero (Penguins, New Jersey Devils) as a senior advisor in 2021. Randy Sexton, the Sabres’ former assistant general manager, was brought in to advise Guerin on how to build the hockey operations department. The Penguins permitted Kyle Dubas to bring former San Jose Sharks general manager Doug Wilson to Pittsburgh.

Experienced executives have expressed interest in working with Adams in such a role, but Pegula hasn’t wanted a president of hockey operations since Pat LaFontaine spent a little more than three months in the role before he resigned. The owner doesn’t want a buffer between him and the general manager. He wants regular communication and input.

Pegula wanted a smaller, more efficient hockey operations department in 2020 because he feared the previous staff became too bloated and spent money carelessly. He also wanted to cut expenses because the team had been losing money during the playoff drought. Pegula complained to reporters that he wasn’t being heard by his general manager, Jason Botterill, who was one of 22 employees fired that day. The owner said his vision for the department was “effective, efficient and economic.” He wanted the Sabres to use video and analytics to build a team.

The Sabres gradually rebuilt the department during and after the 2020-21 season with an emphasis on analytics and amateur scouting. Adams had one assistant general manager for more than three years until Jerry Forton, their director of amateur scouting, received a promotion in June.

Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams says the players “love” the changes to practices and how they’re preparing for games.

Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

The Sabres have filled their prospect pool with talented players, but they have been slow to build around their franchise pillars. They’ve missed on free-agent signings, and there have been times when the Sabres did not acquire a player when there was a glaring need on the roster.

No-trade clauses are a real problem for Adams. The Sabres are always going to have to overpay free agents, and it is only responsible to do that on a one-year contract such as the one they gave Jason Zucker, who has been one of their best players this season. The top players available want big money over several seasons, and Buffalo isn’t typically on their list.

There is talent throughout the organization, but the Sabres are going to need to get creative to change the mix of the roster to set them up to start winning consistently. It has been two years since they’ve won four games in a row. That is a big enough sample size to know that they need to change how they are building the team.

Philosophical shift

The Sabres’ decision to rush at least one prospect to the NHL for three consecutive seasons has caught up to them. Quinn, their 2020 first-round draft pick, has four goals in 28 games, and he has been a healthy scratch seven times. He would have to pass through waivers to join Rochester, so Ruff and his coaching staff must find a way to develop Quinn when there is little practice time to work with a young player.

Peyton Krebs also was rushed to the Sabres shortly after he was acquired in the Jack Eichel trade. Krebs appeared in only 25 games in the AHL before he became a full-time player with Buffalo. Krebs, 23, has 23 goals in 249 NHL games.

Benson was rushed to the league last season because the Sabres’ plan to rush 2022 first-round draft pick Matt Savoie onto their the roster was spoiled by the 5-foot-9 forward’s injury in the Prospects Challenge.

Benson is a feisty, skilled, relentless winger with the intangibles that will help him become a difference-maker, but he is also undersized and lacks the high-end speed that typically allows a player his size to succeed as a teenager. There were reasons why Benson slipped to the 13th pick of the 2023 draft. Benson, 19, has only 16 goals in 100 NHL games, and his 30 penalty minutes this season are only six fewer than he had in 71 games as a rookie.

Sabres left winger Zach Benson awaits a faceoff against the Senators on Nov. 5.

Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

Kulich wasn’t quite ready for the NHL. He endured a long scoring slump last season and produced no goals in five playoff games. His two-goal, three-point showing Monday was an encouraging next step, but the Sabres need to proceed with caution. He needs to begin to limit the turnovers that have cost him ice time and continue to play the way that he did against the Islanders.

Since Adams became general manager in 2020, the Sabres have brought Quinn, Benson, Kulich, Peterka, Devon Levi and Owen Power to the NHL less than three years after they were drafted. The one prospect who was given the proper time to develop, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, began last season as the Sabres’ No. 3 goalie behind Levi and Eric Comrie. The Sabres were ready to give up on Luukkonen and hand the No. 1 job to Levi.

This organization is filled with talented, young players. Too many were brought to the league too soon, though, and Adams did not surround them with enough veterans to teach them how to play winning hockey.

The Sabres also rushed to bring other draft picks to Rochester – most notably, 2024 first-round draft pick Konsta Helenius – instead of allowing them to stay in Europe to receive significant ice time and opportunity with their European or junior clubs. The strategy led Buffalo to not sign enough quality veterans to two-way contracts who could help the NHL team win if there is an injury on the Sabres. They’ve recalled prospects Isak Rosen, Tyson Kozak and Ryan Johnson, each of whom would be better off playing big minutes with the Amerks than barely playing for Ruff.

“Development is not linear,” said Adams. “There’s ups and downs, and you have to understand that when you’re building your team that you’re going to go through that when you have young players in the lineup. I’m a firm believer there’s no better way to learn than to go through it and experience things.”

Sabres vs Canucks

Sabres center Jiri Kulich chases the puck during the first period against the Canucks on Nov. 29.

Joed Viera, Buffalo News

 

Roster

 

  • Teams typically tank when there’s not enough talent throughout the organization and no franchise player or players to build around. The Sabres don’t have either problem.

They have one of the best defensemen in the NHL, Rasmus Dahlin, under contract for seven more seasons. Owen Power, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, has six more years left. He is not defending like an $8.3 million player, but he is third in the league in even-strength points. Every general manager would want him.

Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens are talented centers with term on their contracts. The latter has struggled since signing his deal, but he has the potential and intangibles to be a dynamic center. He scored 31 goals in 2022-23 and 18 last season. It is too soon to panic and give up on him.

Goaltending isn’t a problem, either. The Sabres have Luukkonen signed through 2027-28 and Levi is developing in Rochester.

  • The middle six relies on too many young forwards. Peterka, Kulich, Benson and Quinn have an average age of 20.7 years. Naturally, each of those players has endured growing pains and they’re still learning how to win in the NHL. It is an exciting group, but patience is needed. Peterka had 28 goals last season, Kulich looks like a potential top-line talent, Benson is a feisty agitator who can score and Quinn has the second-best shot on the team.
  • The rest of the defense corps needs to be addressed. Mattias Samuelsson isn’t going anywhere. He is gradually improving under Lindy Ruff. The Sabres need Samuelsson to stay healthy and continue to become a more physical, consistent player. Don’t forget that he is only 24 years old.

There’s also the glaring question around Bowen Byram. The Sabres gave up Casey Mittelstadt to get Byram and planned to keep the 23-year-old around long-term, but he is a restricted free agent this summer. Does Byram want to stay in Buffalo? Is it responsible to pay big money to another left-shot defenseman with his skill set?

The Sabres badly need another reliable, right-handed defenseman who can kill penalties. It should be Adams’ first move when the NHL’s roster freeze ends Saturday.

  • Alex Tuch won’t be vastly underpaid much longer. He’s an unrestricted free agent after the 2025-26 season. Does Tuch want to see it through in Buffalo? The Sabres will need to have that conversation with him soon because the trade interest will only increase in the coming months. They can’t afford to lose him, and shouldn’t be in the market for prospects or draft picks.
  • Another veteran forward is needed, either a center or wing to skate in the middle six. The Sabres need another experienced scorer with playoff experience, especially now that Jordan Greenway is out long-term. Ryan McLeod hasn’t helped the 5-on-5 offense like they expected when they acquired him for Savoie. McLeod has zero goals in his last 17 games and he’s centered the fourth line recently.

It would help Ruff to have another player with poise, physicality, leadership and offensive instincts.

  • There’s $10.28 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia.com, and the Sabres have drafted 13 players in either the first or second round since 2021. There’s ammunition to swing an impactful trade for a short-term impact or one that changes the mix of the roster long-term.

The foundation of this roster is stronger than the one that was crumbling in 2021, multiple important players are signed long-term and there’s a wealth of young talent. None of it is grounds for a rebuild. A swath of the fan base was ready to start over while watching the team lose 13 games in a row, but throwing it all away will only prolong the losing.