Officially confirmation one way or the other won't come for a couple of weeks, but, in the aftermath of a 6–1 Game 7 rout at the hands of the Florida Panthers, it sure feels like Mitch Marner has played his last game as a Toronto Maple Leaf.
May 18, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner (16) reacts after losing the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs to the Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena. (John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images)
Marner's contractual status has been an object of fixation for the Greater Toronto Area for as long as he has starred for his hometown Leafs. The local boy arrived as a prodigious talent—a puck-handler and set-up man seemingly without precedent in the long and not so glorious tradition of Maple Leafs hockey. Now, at the end of his ninth professional season, Marner, despite his hometown status or perhaps because of it, has become public enemy number one in Toronto, the face of a franchise's failure to throw off the weight of history and re-ascend to the sport's pinnacle for the first time since 1967.
Marner heads into the summer as a pending unrestricted free agent. When asked in the aftermath of Florida's demolition job in the self-proclaimed center of the hockey universe what it had meant to be a Maple Leaf, Marner replied, “It meant everything. [They] took maybe a risky pick on a small kid from Toronto and I’ve been forever grateful to be able to wear this Maple Leaf, and be a part of some of the great legends here and be able to wear this jersey, so [I've] never taken a day for granted, and I always loved it.”
Perhaps Marner's words and feelings were clouded by the raw emotion of the latest loss' immediate aftermath, but it's impossible not to take that quote (and the context of the loss, another loss) as a farewell. With that in mind, could Marner—assuming his time in Toronto is indeed done—help the Detroit Red Wings on their quest to return to relevance.
First, a word on his profile. Marner is coming off a season in which he put up 27 goals and 75 assists for 102 points (the latter two figures career highs). He is certainly a playmaker before he's a shooter (though he does have a 30- and a 35-goal season to his name). He's proven himself to be a responsible defender and penalty killer, whose dangerously active stick often pries pucks free from opponents.
But, of course, it's impossible to discuss Marner's career and production without addressing the elephant in the room that is the postseason. In 70 career playoff games, he has 12 goals and 50 assists (that would put him on pace for 73 points over an 82-game season). It's nothing to sneeze at, and while of course it's hard to score in the playoffs, it's more than a small step back from his regular season scoring. And then there's the fact that in those nine seasons, Marner and the Leafs have won a playoff round just twice, promptly getting dumped out of the playoffs in the following series each time.
Marner has just played out a six-year contract worth $65,418,000 (just under a $12 million cap hit), and AFP Analytics project him as due for an eight-year deal worth $100.6 million (roughly a $12.5 million AAV). (As a reminder, he could only sign an eight-year deal with the Maple Leafs, unless Toronto elected to trade his rights elsewhere prior to his signing.)
So, how could that play in Detroit?
First off, it must be stated that Marner can provide at least some of what ails the Red Wings. Detroit needs to add an impact forward to its top six, and it needs to find ways to create more five-on-five offense than it mustered in 2024-25. Marner could certainly help with both of those objectives, and he could help the Wings' woeful PK.
However, heaviness and leadership (read: experience with playoff success) are also on Detroit's offseason shopping list, and Marner can't exactly check those boxes. Listed at six-foot, 180 pounds, he is hardly a pillar of physical prowess, and a lack of postseason success is the primary reason he is likely to hit free agency in the first place.
It's fair to wonder just how much the question of playoff performance should really factor into the Wings' potential pursuit of Marner. The narrative in Toronto is to pin the team's failures on the 'Core Four': Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander. However, there is a compelling case to be made that what's ailed the Leafs throughout that quartet's time in Toronto is actually depth (especially on the blue line) and goaltending, not the alleged underperformance of the team's stars. And, of course, the Red Wings are chasing their first playoff berth in nine seasons. Given the length of that drought, does the fan base really care whether Marner can perform in the clutch when just getting back into that arena would represent a massive step forward for Detroit.
In practical terms, a more pertinent question about the fit between Marner and the Red Wings probably concerns salary structure. Regardless of the precise dollar figure, Detroit would have to make Marner its highest paid player (currently Dylan Larkin at a $8.7 million AAV) by a fairly considerable margin. Is that a leap general manager Steve Yzerman is willing to take on a player who, for all his obvious gifts, has yet to shoulder the burden of being the best player on his team at any point in his NHL career.
Marner, whatever his warts, could certainly bring something to the table the Red Wings, as currently constructed, lack. However, between the baggage of his time in Toronto and the presumably lofty price of bringing him aboard, is he an appropriate move for Detroit as this moment in the franchise's rebuild? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
