Similar to last year, the Buffalo Bills wide receiver room has gone through some changes this offseason as GM Brandon Beane looks to find the right combination for MVP Josh Allen and the offense.
It's the time of year that comes again with pleas from fans and media that the Bills spend draft or trade capital chasing their own Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase.
Mack Hollins walked to division-rival New England Patriots and it doesn't appear that free-agent Amari Cooper will return. While the Bills did sign Khalil Shakir to a contract extension and land free agents Josh Palmer and Laviska Shenault Jr., many are asking where was the move for a D.K. Metcalf or Deebo Samuel? Wisely, Beane left those free agent options on the whiteboard, a philosophy he should also carry into the April draft.
Coach 'Em Up
TE Dalton Kincaid was the 25th pick from the 2023 draft. WR Keon Coleman was the 33rd pick from the 2024 draft. Both of them play for the Bills and both of them need to -- and can -- play better.
Kincaid, drafted out of Utah, had a stellar rookie campaign with 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores, including a long of 51 yards showcasing his big-play ability. He was on track for a similar campaign in 2024 -- projecting for just north of 60 catches -- before suffering a knee injury in early November. That injury seemed to limit Kincaid the rest of the season, one that ended with a disappointing drop in the AFC championship game. Now it's up to Bills tight end coach Rob Boras, along with Allen and OC Joe Brady, to help Kincaid get his mojo (and health) back and play like himself -- a first round draft pick.
There were high hopes for Coleman, out of Florida State, when the Bills drafted him with an early 2nd round pick in 2024. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he's a prototype outside WR. An average 4.6 forty-yard-dash time is misleading as Coleman hit 20.26 mph in the gauntlet drill at the NFL Combine, the fastest speed among all WR's of his class. A 38-inch vertical leap and basketball background give him a great ability to make contested catches. Coleman had a good start to his rookie season, including four catches for 125 yards against the Titans on in late October. A wrist injury in early November saw him miss four games, however, and he wasn't able to get back on track. This is where Allen comes in. His mentoring of a young, talented player like Coleman, who has expressed a desire to improve, is as much a part of his MVP abilities as his play on the field.
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"Everybody Eats" Philosophy of OC Joe Brady
When the Bills let previous OC Ken Dorsey go in October 2023 and elevated quarterback coach Joe Brady, they were committing to a brand new way of life on offense. From Dorsey's boom-bust, 'throw-it-downfield to WR Stephon Diggs as much as possible' to Brady's everybody eats philosophy -- an approach that lent itself to HC Sean McDermott's desire for complimentary football. Brady's commitment to the run and shorter, higher percentage throws for Allen, didn't necessarily spike offensive yards or points scored per game but it did improve two very important metrics: one, more runs equals greater time of possession and, two, turnovers by Allen dropped dramatically.
A critical part of the change was no longer needing to feed a No. 1 WR like Diggs the ball. Many fretted that losing Diggs and ex-Bill WR Gabe Davis after 2023 would be a blow to production but, on the contrary, Brady's offense set franchis records in 2024 with 525 total points, 65 touchdowns and 32 rushing scores on the way to averaging 30.9 points per game, good for second best in the NFL. Allen also had the fewest turnovers of his career with eight. The Bills offense was spectacular without a 'true #1' and, just like the Chiefs and Ravens have shown, they can win big without one.
Defense, Defense, Defense
Buffalo's defense was very good against average competition and just decent against very good competition. With an overall ranking of 17th in the league, they gave up a lot of points to the Rams, Ravens and Lions in the regular season as well as 32 to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship loss. The Bills first three draft picks -- No. 30, No. 56, No. 62 -- should be used to find a corner, an EDGE rusher and a DT. Even better, Beane should use some of the ten picks he has to trade up in the first and grab a real difference-maker if he's not feeling great about the 30th slot. Josh Allen makes it easy to focus on the Bills offense and want more of that, to see all the magical things he can do. Defense, defense, defense, however, will be the thing that gets the Bills over the proverbial hump.
From the day he was hired, Beane has espoused a draft-and-develop mentality and has been largely successful in doing so as the Bills have won five consecutive AFC East championships. With an offense that is humming and a defense that needs help, Beane should stick to his guns -- develop the offensive pass catchers they already have and draft the defensive difference-makers they need. The Bills do not need to waste resources on the fallacy of a 'true #1'.
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