Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov celebrate a goal for the Philadelphia Flyers (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
The Philadelphia Flyers are not going to make the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Any faint hopes of the team truly surging back into the race have been washed away during the first half of their seven-game homestand, as the Flyers have five goals through four games and have lost each contest. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and MoneyPuck.com‘s models have their playoff odds at less than one percent (from ‘NHL 2024-25 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings,’ The Athletic, Mar. 11, 2025.) It’s over.
While the results of their final 17 games may not matter much (other than for determining NHL Draft Lottery position), there is still meaning to the last five weeks of the 58th season of Flyers hockey. From building up the youth to putting players in the best position going into 2025-26, here’s what to watch for the rest of the way for the Orange and the Black.
Fix Travis Konecny
The eight-year, $70 million extension Travis Konecny signed in the offseason looked like a steal at the start of the 2024-25 season. Konecny was dynamite throughout the first four months of the season, recording 58 points in 53 games, putting him in the league’s top 15 in scoring when the calendar flipped to February. He was an easy pick for Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Yet Konecny has been in a rut over the last five and a half weeks. He has just one goal and six points since the start of February and only two goals in the previous two months. His play-driving has also dropped off; before February, Konecny had a 52.87 expected goals (XG%) share (slightly below average relative to his teammates at -0.21%) and was outscored 30-35. Over the last 38 days, that has cratered to a 41.6 xG% rate. The team has struggled, but Konecny’s negative-8.35% mark relative to teammates is one of Philadelphia’s worst.
He’s also been outscored by five goals in that span, which makes for a ghastly 22.2% on-ice goals for rate. That doesn’t include an underwhelming performance with Team Canada in which he was healthy scratched twice and put up a putrid 17.83 xGF% in the two games he did get into.
“You can probably assume how I feel, frustrated,” Konecny said after Tuesday’s loss to the Calgary Flames, during which he hit the crossbar and finished with an ugly 9.99 xGF%, second worst on the team. Konecny also agreed with Noah Cates’ assessment that the Flyers can sometimes get too flashy at home, leading to sloppy mistakes. The Flyers are 30th in the NHL at home with a .470 points percentage, with their marginally better .484 mark on the road ranking 18th.
Though he’s already shattered his career high in assists, a third-straight 30-goal season is in serious peril. Head coach John Tortorella did make a change in the third period Sunday after Konecny skated on a line with Olle Lycksell and Ryan Poehling for the first five periods after the trade deadline, Konecny finished the game with Tyson Foerster and Cates. Konecny picked up an assist with a slick pass to spring Jamie Drysdale on a breakaway late in the game, snapping a four-game pointless drought. He needs it to be the start of the opposite kind of streak to avoid ending the season with a sour taste.
Sort Out the Defense
The Flyers’ trade of Erik Johnson opened up a roster spot for Emil Andrae. The 23-year-old looked pretty impressive near the end of the 2024 calendar year and is expected to remain with the Flyers through the end of the regular season. However, his promotion leaves the Flyers with seven defensemen they want to play and (unless they go with an 11-forward, seven-defensemen lineup) only six spots to fit them.
Travis Sanheim has had a similar trajectory to the other Travis on the team, but he’s not coming out of the lineup. Nor is Rasmus Ristolainen, who hasn’t even lost his power-play spot on the other side of the trade deadline, in case anyone thought the Flyers were trying to showcase him for a trade. Nick Seeler is signed for three more seasons and is an organizational favorite. And it would do little service to take Drysdale out given how much time he’s missed over the last few seasons.
So, that leaves three players in the logjam. Egor Zamula has played well alongside Ristolainen, although you could argue that Ristolainen is carrying the load there. When Andrae returned to the lineup on Saturday, Cam York came out of the lineup. York has played on the top pair for most of the season and has been a stable defender, but his offensive production is down from last season.
Part of why Andrae sat is that the organization is concerned about being too small on the backend. Andrae is downright small for NHL standards (5-foot-9, 181 pounds) and York (6-foot-0, 194 pounds) and Drysdale (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) aren’t going to be mistaken for Zdeno Chara anytime soon.
It would be surprising if York sits consistently, as he replaced Andrae on Sunday and played almost 21 minutes. But another scratch could single out long-term hesitancy for the pending restricted free agent. Maybe Seeler or Ristolainen get an occasional off night to lick their wounds at some point, and it’s still possible that a Ristolainen trade eventually materializes down the road. However, with 2023 first-round pick Oliver Bonk and others at least in the picture at training camp in the fall, some clarity will eventually comes to this position.
Get Michkov the Calder… Nomination
Yeah, there’s a little moving of the goalposts here. According to Sportsbook Review, Matvei Michkov opened the season tied for the favorite for NHL rookie of the year with San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini at +500. The latter has now emerged as the front-runner with -200 odds, creating a solid buffer on Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson, who is second at +325.
The gap between Hutson and the rest of the field is significant. The positioning of Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf could depend on whether he can push his team to an unexpected playoff berth. Calgary currently holds a slight lead on the last wild-card spot in the Western Conference, with the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, and Utah Hockey Club all within striking distance.
But it could be enough for Michkov to earn a final three spot if he paces the league scoring race. A strong push out of the 4 Nations break has Michkov tied with Celebrini for the lead in goals (20) while trailing him in points by one and Hutson by two. Hopefully, the two-week break and limited back-to-backs will keep Michkov fresh down the stretch, and he can build off the 11 points he’s scored in eight games since the break.
He also must stay out of Tortorella‘s doghouse to maximize his chances. Michkov was on the ice and at least partially responsible for the New Jersey Devils’ opening goal on Sunday, and didn’t play the remaining 10 minutes of the period. However, Tortorella strongly rejected the premise that the play was why he sat Michkov down after the game.
“There are so many things that go on with me trying to develop that player and I’m going to continue doing it the way I think it should be done. Don’t just look at the play. No, he didn’t do the job as far as backchecking. No, he didn’t do the job in the offensive zone. There are a number of other things that come into play,” said Tortorella.
The long game has always been the most important part for Michkov, especially with this season spiraling from a standings standpoint. But it would be nice if there could be a short-term payoff and make Michkov the first Flyer nominated for the award since Shayne Gostisbehere finished second in 2015-16.
Don’t Trust Goalie Randomness
Goaltending is a funny thing. Sam Ersson entered the 4 Nations on a heater, finishing positively by goals saved above expected in his final three starts and six of the last eight before the break. But after a strong performance in one game for Sweden, Ersson has allowed more goals than expected in four of five outings, including his last three starts, one of which lasted just 10 minutes.
However, this section is more about the other two goaltenders that have played for the team, specifically Ivan Fedotov since he’s the only other goalie on the roster. Fedotov has played quite well, delivering a stellar performance for a road shootout win against the Winnipeg Jets, a respectable relief appearance against the Flames, and a solid start Sunday. It’s the first time he’s stopped more goals than expected in three consecutive games this season.
But that last sentence should tell you exactly why the Flyers should quickly pivot in the crease behind (or maybe slightly ahead) Ersson. Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov haven’t been near good enough for most of the season, as has every goaltender outside of Ersson since February 2024. That respectable run has only bumped Fedotov up to 61st in goals saved above expected, slightly ahead of Kolosov.
Granted, Ersson isn’t much higher than both, but he’s at least shown the makeup to be a reliable NHL goaltender in some capacity. It’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be good or durable enough to be a full-time starter, but at the very least he can be one-half of a solid tandem, which he proved in the first half of the 2023-24 season.
If the Flyers were tanking, it would be defensible to ride out Fedotov’s two-year, $7.5 million contract or put Kolosov through trial by fire if they thought that was best. But they’re not, and other than the power play, goaltending may be the biggest culprit for their playoff misses this season and last. Whether it’s free agency or trade, the Flyers must look elsewhere to complete their tandem next season.
Wrapping It Up
It’s disappointing the Flyers don’t seem to figure into the playoff race like they did last season. After Sunday’s loss, captain Sean Couturier admitted the difficulties surrounding the team’s circumstances.
“Last year, we were kind of in full control the whole time. I feel this year we’re chasing so it’s almost a little more, maybe pressure on us, to kind of get it going,” he said.
The playoff ship has probably sailed for Philadelphia this season. However, that’s never what the 2024-25 Flyers were supposed to be about, first and foremost . The 2026-27 season is likely the earliest the team’s Stanley Cup window could open as it aligns with $7 million of dead cap coming off the books and the last year of Michkov’s entry-level contract. But the Flyers can’t expect to go zero to 100 when the 2026 offseason hits. Whatever mileage they can get between now and their final game on April 17 can matter if it serves that goal.
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