After finishing in last place in the American League East in 2023 with a 78-win season for the second consecutive year, hopes were not high for the Boston Red Sox in 2024.
With three teams in that division that made the 2023 postseason, and the New York Yankees adding Juan Soto over the offseason, the Red Sox, with their minimal offseason work, seemed poised to three-peat as the AL East’s basement dwellers.
But Boston pleasantly surprised many in 2024, as they found themselves in the Wild Card mix at the All-Star break.
A rough second half saw them ultimately finish only three wins better than their 2022 and 2023 records, but they found themselves finishing third in a usually tightly contested and ultra-competitive AL East.
With a good offensive core to pair with some 2024 breakout performers on the pitching side, the Red Sox have the opportunity to improve even more and further insert themselves into the postseason conversation in 2025 with a smart offseason.
Here are five things the Red Sox need to do this winter to ensure they continue on their path of improvement this coming year:
1. Add an Ace to the Starting Staff
The Red Sox starting rotation featured numerous arms who stepped up and made significant contributions in 2024.
This led the rotation to rank seventh in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in AVG against as a team this past season, according to FanGraphs.
Tanner Houck led the charge with an All-Star campaign, pitching to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 3.32 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP and a .230 AVG against in 178.2 innings of work.
There was also a trio of low-to-mid-4.00 ERA guys, who had their good stretches and key moments throughout the season: Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford.
Pivetta is a free agent, but Houck, Bello, and Crawford could all be useful arms to build out a rotation. Still, they don’t scream “front-end talent,” and none is the ace-caliber name this franchise has been used to deploying in the past.
When you look at the Red Sox championship-winning teams of the past two decades, they’ve had aces at the top of their rotations, with names like Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett and Chris Sale.
Now this team is more than just an ace away from becoming a World Series contender. But if they want to keep pushing in the right direction, then adding an ace when the opportunity is there to do so can push a rotation that performed well in 2024 to one that can be even better in 2025.
An ace can bring that top-tier consistency to help mitigate any possible regression from their mid-tier rotation pieces.
Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell are two names that immediately come to mind. They’re the top two starting pitchers on the open market this winter after coming off impressive 2024 seasons.
The Red Sox don’t need to focus on making major additions to the offense due to the current core they have at the big league level, as well as the next generation of bats lurking in the wings ready to make the jump very soon.
So Boston needs to dip into those large market finances that the Fenway Sports Group has at its disposal and spend like the Red Sox teams of the past. And the place that makes the most sense to do this is at the top of the rotation.
2. Solidify the Middle of the Rotation
The Red Sox don’t need to look far for another way to utilize their deep pockets this winter. Like the top of the rotation, the middle of the rotation could use some bolstering too.
Houck, Bello and Crawford are their only real consistent arms under contract at the moment. And even if Boston brings in an ace, there’s still room for one more arm to complete spots two through five.
I’ve already touched upon how well the Red Sox rotation fared statistically this past season. There’s no time to backtrack on that success, especially in a competitive AL East division and American League as a whole.
The Red Sox have already taken measures to address this matter, extending a qualifying offer to Pivetta last week. And at one year, $21.05 million, there’s a real chance he takes it.
On top of his familiarity with the organization, Pivetta is a great candidate to bolster the lower half of the rotation from a statistical standpoint.
His mid-4.00’s ERAs over the last four seasons don’t jump off the page, but “jump off the page” isn’t what’s required from rotational depth.
What does stand out, though, is his sub-1.15 WHIP and sub-.230 AVG against in the last two seasons.
And in 2024 Pivetta, was efficient in how he approached hitters, sporting an 88th-percentile strikeout rate and 80th-percentile walk rate, according to Baseball Savant.
Even if Pivetta doesn’t take the qualifying offer, there are plenty of pitchers on the open market suitable to pitch somewhere in the two through five slots.
The rotation is a strength for this rising Red Sox roster, so it’s time to get a bit bullish on the market and ensure this rotation has the arms to remain a strength moving forward.
3. Make the Necessary Upgrades to the Bullpen
With the rotation performing the way it did, paired with a core group of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and (when healthy) Triston Casas leading the offense, the bullpen was definitely the area that fell short for the Red Sox in 2024.
As a team, Boston’s relievers ranked 24th in MLB in ERA (4.39), FIP (4.11) and WHIP (1.34), and 26th in AVG against (.254).
And with names like Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, who were both capable of pitching in the later innings, hitting free agency, the Red Sox need to find more arms to account for those key innings at the ends of ballgames should they want to improve upon their lackluster 2024 performance as a ‘pen.
They have a couple of pieces within the bullpen that will serve them well going forward, including their leader in reliever fWAR this past season, Justin Slaten, and a low-3.00 ERA arm in Greg Weissert.
The open market is flush with relief talent of all levels, and the Red Sox could use any option they can get.
While Slaten had a great year and could be in the mix to close next season, there are multiple sure-fire arms with extensive closing experience on the free agent market that could ease the pressure off of Slaten in the back end, as he’ll be entering just his second big league season in 2025.
All-Star caliber names like Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman come to mind as players the Red Sox should go after to fill that necessary closing role.
Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman in 2024, per FanGraphs
And looking further than the top two names on the relief market, guys like Clay Holmes and Carlos Estévez, and even further down the list with names like Blake Treinen and Jorge López, there are plenty of available options who saw varying degrees of success in 2024 and have the late-inning experience that makes them suitable winter targets for the Red Sox.
The 2024 season showed us the importance a strong bullpen can have for a team’s success (just look at the Guardians), meaning if the Red Sox want to be a legitimate Wild Card contender in 2025, they need to not only address the losses to their ‘pen but upgrade in the process as well.
4. Let the Kids Play
The Red Sox are in a great position from a prospect standpoint with four names within the top 50 on Just Baseball’s latest Top 100 prospect rankings.
And what makes their situation even more promising is that all four of them could make their big league debuts in 2025, according to our prospect expert Aram Leighton’s projections.
Roman Anthony is Just Baseball’s top-ranked prospect heading into the offseason after a fantastic two-year stretch in the minor leagues.
The 20-year-old outfielder has hit at each of the last four stops he’s made in the minor leagues, including a 143 wRC+ in 376 plate appearances in Double-A Portland and a 162 wRC+ in 164 plate appearances during his first taste of Triple-A ball in Worcester in 2024.
Marcelo Mayer has been one of the league’s most promising prospects since he was drafted fourth overall in 2021. In 335 plate appearances in Double-A in 2024, the 21-year-old shortstop hit .307 with an .850 OPS while earning a very strong 65 future value for his defense.
Kristian Campbell is currently the second-best second base prospect in MLB, only trailing this year’s first-overall draft pick, Travis Bazzana.
And after starting the season at High-A Greenville, the 22-year-old rose all the way to Triple-A, after posting wRC+ totals of 173 in High-A and 197 in Double-A.
Kyle Teel projects to be the catcher of the future in Boston, after being selected in the first round of the 2023 draft. He spent most of this past season in Double-A Portland, where he hit .298 with an .852 OPS, so it’s easy to see why.
Given the performance each of these guys put up in the upper minors, there’s a clear path forward for the Red Sox to insert and utilize all of them on the active big league roster.
Despite a currently solid outfield mix of Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, it’s easy to see a way for the number one prospect in baseball, Anthony, to join the mix and eventually lead this outfield in the near future.
Mayer has every opportunity to become the shortstop of choice in Fenway Park, especially considering the injury history their current shortstop, Trevor Story, has had in recent years.
Campbell might have the clearest picture as to how he’ll fit into this Boston lineup, given the fact that David Hamilton (92 wRC+ in 2024) and Romy González (97 wRC+) are the guys occupying second base at the moment. Though, of course, Story could move to second base if Mayer forces him over. (See point no. 5.)
Finally, despite a solid year from Connor Wong behind the plate, Teel already provides an upgrade on their current backup option, and his 50th overall prospect ranking gives him the necessary upside to project out as the Red Sox’s starting backstop in the near future.
Boston has a unique opportunity to have a large part of the future come up in a short time frame and get acclimated to playing together at the highest level.
The Red Sox shouldn’t hesitate to get these young players the game time they need in the majors when there’s nothing left for them to prove in the minors.
The time is now for the Red Sox to start reaping the rewards of their retooling, meaning the future needs to be at the forefront of their decision-making.
And these talented names have shown their worth in the upper minors to the point where they could have the Red Sox challenging for a postseason berth in 2025, and they will certainly play a huge role in pushing for more than merely a postseason berth in future seasons.
5. Establish a Plan for Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida
With immense young talent on the way to the majors sooner rather than later, there are some veteran names that find their futures in Boston in flux.
The first name whose future comes into question is Trevor Story.
Although Story showed some promise when he came off the IL late in 2024, the fact of the matter is that he’s seldom been available since signing a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox ahead of the 2022 season.
The former All-Star shortstop has failed to appear in more than 94 games in any of his first three seasons in Boston.
With Mayer knocking on the door to take over at short and Campbell not far off from that everyday second base role, Story could run out of positions to play for the Red Sox.
The other name in limbo is outfielder and designated hitter Masataka Yoshida, who’s seemingly fallen out of favor with the organization.
Trouble in paradise between the Sox and Yoshida dates back to fairly early last season, resulting in Yoshida becoming a full-time DH, spending just a single inning in the outfield in 2024.
And Yoshida and his five-year $90 million contract have reportedly been on the trade block since last winter.
He’s already been pushed out of the outfield mix, but with three solid outfield options now in Duran, Abreu and Rafaela, in addition to top-100 prospects like Anthony (no. 1), and Braden Montgomery (no. 77) waiting in the wings, there will be a need for more at-bats in Boston lineup’s, which could call Yoshida’s DH spot into question.
This makes having a plan for these two veterans a crucial item for Craig Breslow and the Red Sox front office to address this winter.
For Yoshida, the answer is simple: It’s time the Red Sox find a trade and part ways with him. His $18.6 million AAV over the next three years makes him a bit difficult to trade, but there could be a bad contract swap out there, or they could accept a minimal return in order to free up that lineup space.
If Yoshida is able to play outfield for whatever team he gets dealt to, his contract becomes less of a burden, especially considering the solid year he had at the plate.
For Story, there are still three years at $22.5 million remaining on his contract, and given his injury history, the Red Sox likely won’t have the luxury of working out a trade for him, as they could with Yoshida.
But after his decent 101 wRC+ showing in 26 games this past season, he could spend time in the DH spot (presuming the Red Sox trade Yoshida) and preserve his body by eliminating some defensive wear-and-tear, once both Mayer and Campbell take control of the middle infield.
It’s not a long-term fix, as they’ll still have four outfielders vying for plate appearances when Anthony makes it up, and then five when Montgomery gets his shot. But for the immediate future, it could be the best way to get the most value out of Story since he signed.
And if he can stay healthy the later he gets into his contract, the easier it could be for Boston to explore options to move on from him and free up space on their active roster once and for all.
It’s Not a Failure if 2025 Is Not Boston’s Year
Seeing how the Red Sox made pretty significant strides toward improvement in 2024, it’s hard to call this past season a failure, despite the fact they missed the postseason.
And when you think of some of the surprise, feel-good stories that worked their way into the AL postseason picture in 2024, like the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers, who’s to say Boston can’t be that team in 2025?
But as this past season shouldn’t be considered a failure, I feel the same should the Red Sox miss the playoffs again in 2025.
While they have an established core, the ideal team for the Red Sox to field in the near future will be a very young squad. We discussed four key prospects who will look to make an impact in 2025, but we have to allow for growing pains as they get acclimated to the major leagues.
And while an ace will certainly help minimize the regression that could occur for guys like Houck or Crawford, and a top closer could do the same for guys like Slaten in the bullpen, pitching regression is still a possible scenario for a staff that exceeded many expectations last year.
At the end of the day, the goal should be to continue to push deeper toward postseason contention and get closer to a mid-80s win mark to have a shot at the postseason.
So as long as the Red Sox can be more than just a mediocre .500 ball club next season, then it should be counted as another win.
But a smart offseason is the only way to make that happen, so there’s no time to waste.
