Packers nearing a crossroads with Christian Watson as they evaluate his role and long-term value to the team

Now, entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Packers are at a crossroads. Does it make sense to keep him? For how much? The ACL injury doesn't help to solve the equation, because he will miss a significant part of his fourth regular season.

"He looks like a freak like he always does, in a positive way," head coach Matt Lafleur said about Watson's recovery process. "He's been great, he's been outstanding. Just great attitude and he's working hard."

Even though it feels like 2022 was much better, last season was just as good—except for the number of touchdowns. In 2024, he finished the season with a career high 620 receiving yards, and tied for a career high in yards per route run (2.26), leading the Packers receivers in play-by-play efficiency.

The next question is about money, and who the Packers will prioritize.

Difficult decision and its layers

Christian Watson is already eligible to get a contract extension, but it's hard to pull one off while recovering from a serious knee injury. Joshua Queipo, a cap analyst for Pewter Report, projects that Watson would command $14 million on yearly average—and he may not accept that, unless it's a shorter-term bridge deal. But the Packers don't need that right now.

Watson's value next offseason will depend on what he's able to do on the field when he gets back. Queipo projects that Watson would need to have a 65-reception, 1,050-yard, five-touchdown season to reach a $20 million per year market value, elevating his yards per route run to 2.6. But those numbers are unrealistic if he misses significant time.

Even if it's in the middle of the road, a $17 million average is still a hefty price to pay for a player who's never had consistent production in the NFL.

Now, the Packers have drafted Matthew Golden and Savion Williams. Among the more experienced receivers, it would be fair to prioritize Jayden Reed, who led the Packers in receiving yards in each of his first two seasons in the league. Moreover, Dontayvion Wicks is under contract through 2026 as well.

Grabbing two receivers in the first three rounds put the Packers in a more comfortable situation. Ideally, the team would probably want to find a way to keep Watson beyond 2025. But it's a hard situation, and the combination of money and lack of elite production on the field makes it a tough pill to swallow.