Michael Penix Jr: Dynasty Outlook for Young Falcons Quarterback

The Atlanta Falcons shocked everybody when they took Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. They had just given Kirk Cousins a four-year $180M contract, and he was set to be the starter for at least a few seasons. Fast forward about eight months, and Penix has displaced Cousins as the starter. It looks like he’ll be the quarterback of the future in Atlanta while Cousins searches for a new team. This is the dynasty outlook for Michael Penix Jr. in a dynamic Falcons offense.

Michael Penix Jr: Dynasty Outlook for Young Falcons Quarterback

Current Production

Penix was only the starter for the season’s final three weeks, so his production is limited. However, those three weeks showed a glimpse of his capabilities. His standout game came in Week 18 against an admittedly porous Carolina Panthers defense, but Penix starred with 26 fantasy points, including two passing touchdowns and one rushing. It was also Drake London‘s best game of the season, with ten receptions for 187 yards and two touchdowns.

In his three starts, Penix averaged over 245 yards and 33 passing attempts per game, which indicates the style of offense the Falcons would run with Penix. He’s not much of a runner, but his rushing touchdown in the final game showed he’s not afraid to escape the pocket if he has to.

Penix Jr. Dynasty Price

KeepTradeCut has Penix as the 52nd-ranked player overall and the QB18. These are solid ranks, considering Penix only has three starts under his belt and has limited rushing upside. One factor that differentiates Penix is his age. Although he just finished his rookie season, Penix will be 25 in May. This was one of his major selling points coming out of the draft; he was seen as more polished and NFL-ready than most of his 2024 classmates. 

Penix’s dynasty price will largely depend on the format. Penix projects as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2. Although his age is an advantage in being able to produce right away, it limits his ceiling. He will be more valuable in two-quarterback leagues, where he would be an undisputed starter on most teams. 

Penix Jr. Dynasty Outlook

Kirk Cousins’ poor play has led to a shift in fortune for Penix. The whole situation is puzzling, but the Falcons selecting Penix with the eighth pick indicated that he would be the starter sooner rather than later. The most likely scenario is that Cousins finds a new team, but him staying as the Falcons backup isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility.

He could return to take over for a few games if Penix struggles. The Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts made similar moves with their young quarterbacks this season, albeit both have different profiles from Penix. That said, all signs still point to him being the starter for the whole season. With weapons like London, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney, Penix has enough firepower on his offense to put up massive numbers.

What to Do With Michael Penix Jr. in Dynasty Leagues

We’ve seen so little of Penix that the instinctual thing to do is keep him. However, if you want a quarterback with top-five upside, Penix isn’t your man. He’s not the fastest or the biggest body, so rushing is more of a last resort. It’s tough to be a top-five fantasy QB without elite rushing upside. Penix seems to be more in the Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff mold of fantasy quarterback, but only time will tell.